“双碳”背景下县域产业碳源及碳收支平衡模型分析与探索

Analysis and Exploration of Carbon Source and Carbon Balance Model of County Regional Industries under Background of“Double Carbon”

“双碳”目标为中国产业结构转型和环境保护指明了方向,温室气体的增加主要是由于化石燃料的大量使用和土地利用方式的改变。目前,对于化石燃料领域的双碳研究数量较多,但对于县域农业产业以土地利用方式领域的双碳研究却明显不足。文章通过细化产业碳源碳汇数据,采用统计方法研究了典型县域产业碳收支平衡关系,结果表明:某县产业总体表现为碳汇过程,净碳汇量在104815吨至161839吨之间波动;生产碳源总量由2013年的34659吨逐年增加至2020年的49433吨,其中化肥所占比例均超过89%;碳汇总量随作物产量的变化而波动,变化区间介于146414吨与210000吨之间,其中玉米碳汇所占比例超过52%。

The“double carbon”target points out the direction for China's industrial structure transformation and environmental protection.The increase of greenhouse gases is mainly due to the massive use of fossil fuels and changes in land use patterns.At present,there is a large amount of research on dual-carbon in the field of fossil fuels,but the research on dual-carbon in the field of county agricultural industry and land use is obviously insufficient.Through refining the carbon source and carbon sink data of industries,this paper uses statistical methods to study the carbon balance relationship of industries in typical counties.The results show that:the overall performance of a county's industry is a carbon sink process,with the net carbon sink fluctuating between 104815 tons and 161839 tons;The total amount of carbon sources produced has increased from 34659 tons in 2013 to 49433 tons in 2020,with the proportion of chemical fertilizers accounting for more than 89%;The total carbon sink fluctuates with the change of crop yield,ranging from 146414 tons to 210000 tons,of which corn carbon sink accounts for more than 52%.