度量人口老龄化的复合指标体系构建及应用

Construction and Application of Composite Index System for Measuring Population Ageing

文章构建度量我国人口老龄化的复合指标体系,综合利用层次分析法和熵值法确定指标权重,结合历年人口普查数据测度了1953—2020年我国人口老龄化的变化趋势,研究发现:我国人口老龄化指数总体呈现上升态势,人口老龄化指数由1953年的10.82上升到2020年的94.57;我国人口老龄化两次拐点明显,正由低度老龄化迈入中度老龄化,人口高龄化、长寿化趋势明显;人口平均预期寿命显著增加,长寿系数趋于增长,80岁及以上高龄老年人比例、百岁老人规模稳步增长;社会抚养比的内部结构显著变化,少儿抚养比趋于减小,而老年抚养比趋于增大,少儿人口规模、少儿人口比例呈“Z”型变化态势;老龄化速度迅速提升,老年人口变化率由负转正,呈现两次明显的加速度过程,部分速度性指标的测度结果与2000年和2020年的人口老龄化拐点基本吻合。

This paper constructs a composite index system for measuring population ageing in China,and then uses analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method and entropy method to determine the weights of the indexes.Finally,the paper combines the da-ta from previous censuses to measure the trend of population ageing in China from 1953 to 2020.The results go as the following:China’s population ageing index shows an overall rising trend,with the population ageing index rising from 10.82 in 1953 to 94.57 in 2020.Two inflection points are evident in China’s population ageing,which is moving from low to moderate ageing,and the trend of population ageing and longevity is obvious.The average life expectancy of the population has increased significantly;the longevity coefficient tends to grow,and the proportion of senior citizens aged 80 and above and the scale of centenarians are steadily increasing.The internal structure of the social dependency ratio has changed significantly,with the juvenile dependency ratio tending to shrink while the elderly dependency ratio tends to expand,and the size of the juvenile population and the propor-tion of the juvenile population showing a Z-shaped trend of change.The rate of ageing is rising rapidly,with the rate of change of the ageing population turning from negative to positive,showing two distinct acceleration processes.The measurement results of some velocity indicators are basically consistent with the turning point of population aging in 2000 and 2020.