双循环新发展格局的政策效果评价

Policy Effect Evaluation of the New Development Pattern of Dual Circulation

文章采用动态一般均衡分析方法,构建了一个两国两部门的开放经济模型,模拟分析了中国外循环比重下降对中国和外国经济的影响。研究发现:(1)中国和外国的劳动力和资本要素逐渐由贸易部门向非贸易部门转移,中国和外国贸易部门的就业比重均下降。(2)在生产过程中存在结构性转移,中国和外国贸易部门产出在国内生产总值中的比重不断下降,而非贸易部门产出在总产出中的占比不断上升,外需对经济的拉动作用减弱。(3)中国总产出显著上升,而外国总产出缓慢提升,中国与外国总产出的比值明显上升。以上研究结果表明,双循环新发展格局能有效应对外部冲击,促进国内经济高质量发展。

This paper uses the dynamic general equilibrium analysis method to construct an open economy model with two-country and two-sector,and then simulates and analyzes the impact of the decline of China’s external circulation proportion on China and the world economy.The findings of the research go as below:(1)The factors of labor and capital in China and for⁃eign countries are gradually transferred from trade sector to non-trade sector,and the employment proportion in both Chinese and foreign trade sector are declining.(2)There is a structural shift in the production process,with the proportion of China’s and for⁃eign trade sector output in GDP continuously decreasing,while the proportion of non-trade sector output in total output is continu⁃ously increasing,with the driving effect of external demand on economy weakened.(3)China's total output rises significantly,while foreign output rises slowly,and the ratio of China’s output to foreign output rises significantly.