水资源总量约束条件下玛纳斯河灌区水资源优化配置

Optimization of water resources in Manas River irrigation district under constraints of total water resources configuration

针对干旱绿洲灌区水资源系统中存在的水资源供需矛盾问题,采用Lasso算法预测玛纳斯河灌区不同规划水平年需水量,开展绿洲灌区水资源供需平衡分析;构建干旱绿洲灌区水资源优化配置模型,采用LINGO语言对模型求解,通过模糊综合评价模型对玛纳斯河灌区水资源配置结果进行和谐度评价.研究结果表明:2025年和2030年玛纳斯河灌区需水量分别超出用水总量控制指标0.43亿m^(3)和1.04亿m^(3),水资源供需矛盾突出;基于LINGO语言求解多目标规划模型最优解得到灌区规划发展最优方案,优化后灌区2025年和2030年用水总量分别降低5.88%和11.04%,水资源供需矛盾得到一定程度缓解;构建和谐性模糊综合评价模型,以判断灌区和谐水平并得出评价结果.研究结果可以为干旱绿洲灌区水资源优化配置提供基础依据.

In order to address the contradiction between water resources supply and demand in the water resources system of the arid oasis irrigation district,the Lasso algorithm was used to predict the annual water demand at different planning levels in the Manas River irrigation district and the analysis of water resources supply and demand balance in the oasis irrigation district was also carried out.The model of optimal water resources allocation in the arid oasis irrigation was constructed,for which LINGO language was used to solve the model,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the degree of harmony of the water resource allocation results in the irrigation district.The results of the study show that the water demand of the Manas River irrigation district in 2025 and 2030 will exceed the control index of total water consumption by 0.043 billion m^(3) and 0.104 billion m^(3),respectively,and the contradiction between water resources supply and demand is outstanding.The optimal solution of the multi-objective programming model based on LINGO language is obtained for the planned development of the irrigation district.After optimization,the total water consumption of the irrigation district in 2025 and 2030 will be reduced by 5.88%and 11.04%respectively,and the contradiction between water supply and demand is alleviated to a certain extent.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of harmony is constructed to judge the level of harmony in irrigation districts in order to derive evaluation results.The research results can provide a fundamental basis for the optimal allocation of water resources in arid oasis irrigation districts.