国家级承接产业转移示范区设立能促进绿色发展吗

Can the Establishment of National Demonstration Zone for Undertaking Industrial Transfer Promote Green Development?

绿色发展是新发展理念的关键一环,是实现高质量发展的必由之路,而产业转移对绿色发展的影响尚不明晰。基于2000—2020年中国288个地级市面板数据,运用渐进双重差分法实证分析国家级承接产业转移示范区设立对城市绿色发展的影响。结果表明,国家级承接产业转移示范区设立对城市绿色发展水平提升有显著促进作用,且该政策效应随着时间推移越来越强。分位数回归表明,国家级承接产业转移示范区对绿色发展的促进作用呈边际效用递减规律,即该政策效应在绿色发展水平较低的城市中更加显著,而在绿色发展水平较高的城市中较弱。调节效应分析表明,产业结构合理化和高级化能够正向调节国家级承接产业转移示范区的绿色发展效应。结论有助于丰富绿色发展的影响因素研究,厘清承接产业转移对当地绿色发展水平的影响,有利于以产业转移为抓手释放城市绿色发展效应,进一步实现绿色高质量发展。

Green development is a key part of the new development concept and an important way to achieve high-quality development,but the impact of industrial transfer on green development is yet to be known.On the one hand,industrial transfer may upgrade traditional industries through the circulation of factors to reduce energy consumption,which is conducive to green development;on the other hand,most industrial transfer involve high-pollution and high-energy-consuming enterprises,which may not be conducive to green development.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to clarify the specific mechanism of industrial transfer for green development for the sustainable development of the economies of various countries.Existing research on green development mostly focuses on its measurement and influencing factors.In terms of measurement,there are two mainstream measurement methods:the first is to construct an indicator system based on the connotation of green development,and then methods such as the entropy method and principal component analysis are employed to calculate its comprehensive score;the second is to calculate green total factor productivity from the perspective of efficiency by taking wastewater,exhaust gas,and solid waste as unexpected outputs.In terms of influencing factors,existing studies have attributed the factors affecting green development to urban innovation level,government intervention,information technology level,etc.,but have not yet paid attention to the impact of industrial transfer on green development.Drawing on the panel data of 288 prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2020,first of all,this paper uses the staggered difference-in-difference method to empirically analyze the impact of the establishment of national-level industrial transfer demonstration zones on green development.Then it uses the quantile regression method to empirically analyze the marginal impact of the policy on green development.Finally,this paper empirically analyzes the moderating role of industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure upgrading in the policy effect by using the moderating effect regression method.It is concluded that the establishment of national-level undertaking industrial transfer demonstration zones has a significant promotion effect on the green development level of the demonstration zones,and the policy effect is getting stronger as time goes by;quantile regression shows that the role of national level demonstration zones for undertaking industrial transfer in promoting green development follows the law of diminishing Marginal utility,that is,the policy effect is greater for prefecture-level cities with a lower level of green development,but smaller for prefecture-level cities with a higher level of green development;finally,the analysis of the adjustment effect shows that the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure can positively adjust the green development effect of the national-level industrial transfer demonstration zone.The following implications arising from this study are presented.(1)Industrial transfer is a powerful starting point for green development,and more regions that meet the conditions for undertaking industrial transfer should be included in the national demonstration area for undertaking industrial transfer to fully release its green development effect.(2)The national-level industrial transfer demonstration zone is an important policy choice to promote green development,but its green development effect has a law of diminishing marginal effect.Therefore,local governments should fully evaluate the local green development level,pay attention to the planning and construction of the local industry,and maximize the green development effect of the national-level demonstration zone for undertaking industrial transfer through reasonable capital allocation and policy selection.(3)Cities with the national-level demonstration zone for undertaking industrial transfer should continue to optimize their industries to achieve the transformation and upgrading of local industries in a timely manner to obtain the greatest effect of green development.Due to the availability of data,this paper does not pay attention to the types of industries undertaken by the demonstration area,which may lead to heterogeneity of policy effects;moreover,the spatial spillover of policy effects may occur in the process.These issues are warranted for further research.