1960-2020年海南岛气温、降水及参考作物蒸散量变化趋势

Trend Analysis of the Temperature,Precipitation and Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Hainan Island from 1960 to 2020

探究地区气温、降水等气候资源变化特征,可为气候变化下农业生产规划布局和气象灾害防御提供科学依据。利用1960-2020年海南岛7个气象站逐日气象资料,采用气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendal(MK)检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,对海南岛近61 a气温、降水及参考作物蒸散量(ET0)的时空变化趋势进行了系统分析。结果表明:在时间上,海南岛年平均气温以0.22℃/(10 a)的速率显著上升,年平均降水量以33.66 mm/(10 a)的速率不显著增加,ET0以-0.30 mm/(10 a)的速率轻微下降。MK检验表明气温序列未发生突变,而降水和ET0序列存在突变现象。小波分析表明气温存在55 a的变化主周期,降水和ET0存在56 a的主周期。在不同季节,气温均显著上升,降水和ET0的变化趋势不显著。在空间上,海南岛气温以中部琼中为低值中心向周边沿海地区增加,东南部气温整体高于东北部;降水量以中部琼中为中心向周边沿海地区减小,ET0呈从东北向西南递增的趋势。研究表明近61 a海南岛气候呈现暖湿化趋势,对全球变暖响应显著。预测未来几年气温、降水和ET0将处于偏低期,这将对该地区农业生产和生态系统等产生影响。

The analysis of the characteristics of regional temperature,precipitation and other climate resources changes can provide a scientific basis for the planning and layout of agricultural production and meteorological disaster prevention under climate change.In this study,we used the climatic tendency rate,Mann-Kendal(MK)test and Morlet wavelet method to analyze the daily meteorological data from 7 stations in Hainan Island from 1960 to 2020,which could yield the temporal and spatial variation trend of temperature,precipitation and reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0).The results show that,in terms of time,the annual average temperature of Hainan Island increased significantly at the rate of 0.22℃/(10 a),the annual average precipitation increase mildly at the rate of 33.66 mm/(10 a),and the ET0 decreased slightly at the rate of-0.30 mm/(10 a).MK test shows that there is no mutation in temperature series,but there is mutation in precipitation and ET0 series.The wavelet analysis shows that there is a main cycle of 55 years for temperature change,and a main cycle of 56 years for precipitation and ET0.In different seasons,the temperature rises significantly,but the change trend of precipitation and ET0 is not significant.In terms of spatial distribution,the temperature in Hainan Island increases from the central Qiongzhong as the centre of low values to the surrounding coastal areas,with the temperature in the southeast overall is higher than that in the northeast;precipitation decreases from the central Qiongzhong to the surrounding coastal areas,with ET0 showing an increasing trend from northeast to southwest.The results indicate that the climate of Hainan Island has shown a warming and humidification trend in the last 61 a,responding significantly to global warming.It is predicted that the temperature,precipitation and ET0 will fall in the next few years,which will have an impact on the agricultural production and ecosystem in this area.