基于CMA-WSP1.0的贵州短波辐射检验分析

该文采用常规统计学检验方法,利用2023年4—6月贵阳国家基准气候站总辐射辐照度数据对中国气象局风能太阳能预报系统CMA-WSP1.0的短波辐射数据开展检验分析。结果表明,预报值的平均值较观测值比较接近;从误差来看,6月最好,4月次之,5月最差,各月稳定性较好,各时效表现接近;观测值小于200 W/m^(2)时预报偏小,大于该值时预报常偏大,上午预报常偏小,阴天、多云时预报偏差加大,晴天时预报效果最好。

In this paper,by using the conventional statistical test method,the total radiation irradiance data of Guiyang National Meteorological Station from April to June 2023 are used to test and analyze the shortwave radiation data of wind and solar energy prediction system CMA-WSP1.0 of China Meteorological Administration.The results show that the average value of predicted value is close to the observed value,and in terms of error,June is the best,April is the second,May is the worst,monthly stability is good,and each time effect is approximate.The prediction is small when the observed value is less than 200 W/m2,larger when it is larger,smaller in the morning,more deviated in cloudy and cloudy days,and the best in sunny days.