黄河流域城市群土地利用的碳排放效应

Carbon Emission from Land Use in Urban Agglomeration of the Yellow River Basin

从流域地理分异的视角探讨黄河流域土地利用碳排放效应,是合理利用国土空间、制定差异化碳减排政策的重要基础。基于构建的长时序DMSP/OLS和NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据,核算2009—2018年黄河流域城市群土地利用碳排放,通过时空地理加权回归(GTWR),解析各城市群碳排放的空间分异特征及影响因素。结果表明:(1)2009—2018年黄河流域各城市群碳排放整体表现出收敛态势,峰值大多出现在2012和2017年,2013年为低值聚集年;流域上表现为下游>中游>上游的分异特征。(2)莫兰指数表明各城市群土地利用碳排放呈正向显著空间自相关,形成上中游以鄂尔多斯、榆林和下游以潍坊、临沂为辐射面的高—高聚集地,以及上游环兰州、西宁的低—低聚集地。(3)不同时期,黄河流域城市群碳排放的驱动因素不尽相同,经济发展和产业结构对城市群土地利用碳排放的影响逐渐减弱,而城镇化率和土地利用结构对碳排放具有持续性的高影响;主导因素在空间上的异质性决定了不同城市群的提升策略各有差异。未来黄河流域城市群可持续发展与生态保护应在考虑区域协同联动发展的基础上分区分时施策。

Exploring the effects of carbon emission of land use in the Yellow River basin from the perspective of geographical differentiation is an important basis for the rational land use and the policy formulation of differentiated carbon reduction.Based on the night light data of DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS,this study calculates the carbon emissions of land use in the urban agglomerations of the Yellow River from 2009 to 2018.It uses geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR) to analyze the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of the carbon emissions of land use.Results show that:1) From 2009 to 2018,the carbon emissions showed a convergence trend.Most peaks occurred in2012 and 2017,it had a low value in 2013.The carbon emission values from high to low are the lower reaches of Yellow River,the middle reaches of Yellow River and the upper reaches of Yellow River respectively.2) Moran's index showed that the carbon emissions of land use had a positive significant spatial autocorrelation among the urban agglomerations of the Yellow River.High-high aggregation areas with the radiation surface were Ordos,Yulin,Weifang and Linyi.Low-low aggregation areas were Lanzhou and Xining.3) In different periods,the dominant driving factors were different.The impact of economic development and industrial structure gradually weakens,while the urbanization rate and land use structure have a sustained high impact.The spatial heterogeneity of dominant factors determines that the promotion strategies of different urban agglomerations should be different.In the future,sustainable development and ecological protection should be implemented deferring from spatial and temporal differentiation.