疫情冲击下北京市旅游业及细分行业恢复的差异

Differences in the Recovery of Beijing's Tourism Industry and Its Subsectors under the Impact of the COVID-19

新冠疫情导致全球旅游业受到重创,我国出入境旅游几乎停摆,国内旅游恢复步履艰难,旅游业恢复过程出现诸多不平衡现象。文章以北京市为例,构建疫情风险指数,用以反映旅游业受疫情风险影响的程度,以短途交通和长途交通为中介变量,建立了市民在京旅游和外省来京旅游恢复与疫情风险、交通客运的多元回归方程,对比分析北京市国内旅游细分市场的恢复过程;从旅游产业视角对比分析,发现旅行社恢复水平整体最低,全国疫情严重或北京市疫情反弹期间,景区和酒店恢复指数都下降,且酒店下降更低,北京市和全国疫情都为低风险时,酒店恢复反超景区或与之持平。疫情反复背景下,国内旅游客流量恢复指数始终高于旅游收入,国内旅游恢复之路始终是以“人气”带动“财气”恢复。

The global tourism industry has took a hit because of the COVID-19 pandemic.In China,both the inbound and outbound tourism has been halted,the domestic tourism sector also has faced difficulties and numerous imbalances phenomena in the recovery process after the pandemic.This research takes Beijing as the research area,constructs an pandemic risk index to reflect the degree to which the tourism industry is affected by COVID-19.Taking short-distance transportation and long-distance transportation as mediating variables,it establishes multiple regression equations for pandemic risk,transportation,tourism recovery of local citizen travel in Beijing and tourist from other provincial-level regions to Beijing,and analyzes the recovery process of Beijing's domestic tourism segmented market.It's found that:1)From the perspective of tourism industry,the recovery index of travel agency was at the slowest level within all the tourism sectors.Beijing or the whole nation is in a high-risk period,the recovery index of scenic spot and hotel both dropped,and the recovery index of hotel was considerably lower.The recovery index of hotel surpassed or equalled the recovery index of scenic spot when the pandemic danger is minimal in Beijing and the whole nation.During the pandemic time,the recovery index of domestic tourist flow has always been higher than that of tourism income,indicating that the recovery of domestic tourism has always been driven by the "popularity" firstly.