基于系统动力学的近零能耗建筑推广效果提升机理研究

Mechanism of Improving Promotion Effect of Nearly Zero Energy Buildings Based on System Dynamics

目前,我国对近零能耗建筑的研究多使用定性分析,缺少定量分析,无法为其推广提供全面的数据支持,且未考虑各影响因素间的相互作用、相互联系,加之各因素对其产生影响的作用机理不明确,以及影响因素对其影响程度不明确,因此无法提出针对性措施。基于此,从政策、经济、技术维度构建影响近零能耗建筑发展因素的系统动力学模型,并进行稳定性、极端性、心智模型检验,验证模型的合理性和适用性。在此基础上,以河北省数据为样本,通过Vensim PLE软件进行系统仿真模拟,对关键影响因素进行敏感性分析,得到应提高劳动生产率、增加建筑业劳动力供给、落实政府激励措施,促进发展的结论。

At present,China’s research on nearly zero energy buildings focuses on qualitative analysis and lacks quantitative analysis,which is unable to provide comprehensive data support for its promotion,and does not take into account the interactions and interconnections between its influencing factors,as well as the unclear mechanism of each factor’s influence on it,and lacks the study of the influence degree of the influencing factors on it,so it is not possible to put forward targeted measures.Based on this,a system dynamics model of factors affecting the development of nearly zero energy buildings is constructed from policy,economic,technology dimensions,and stability,extremity,mental model tests are conducted to verify the rationality and applicability.On this basis,taking the data of Hebei Province as a sample,system simulation is conducted through Vensim PLE software,and sensitivity analysis is conducted on the key influencing factors.The conclusion that labor productivity should be improved,labor supply in the construction industry should be increased,and government incentives should be implemented to promote development is proposed.