几内亚湾恐怖袭击事件时空演变特征研究

Research on Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics of Terrorist Attacks in the Gulf of Guinea

非洲正逐渐成为恐怖袭击的频发地,对其关键区域恐怖袭击的时空演变研究尤为重要。运用大量数据,构建几内亚湾沿线国家恐怖袭击事件威胁度评价指标体系,确立恐怖袭击事件威胁度等级。运用空间统计分析方法,探讨1990—2019年几内亚湾沿线恐怖袭击事件时空演变特征。得到以下结论:①时间维度上,几内亚湾恐怖袭击态势分为“兴起-活跃-井喷-震荡”4个阶段。②空间维度上,几内亚湾恐怖袭击事件呈现为一大活跃区,两大次级活跃区及其他风险地区。③时空演变上,恐怖袭击活动的范围大小经历了“增大-缩小-增大”的演变过程;空间分布格局逐渐从“西北-东南”方向向“东北-西南”方向转变,这为几内亚湾反恐怖主义提供了数据支撑。

Africa is becoming a heat spot for its frequent terrorist attacks and it’s necessary to study the spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks in its major regions.Based on numerous data,we constructed an evaluation index system for the threat level of terrorist attacks in the Gulf of Guinea coastal countries and identified the threat level of terrorist attacks.We explored the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of terrorist attacks in the Gulf of Guinea coast from 1990 to 2019 through spatial statistical analysis.The results show that①in temporal dimension,the terrorist attacks situation in the Gulf of Guinea is divided into four stages which are rise,active,eruption,impact.②In spatial dimension,the terrorist attacks in the area are presented as a large active zone,two sub-active zones and other risk zones.③In terms of spatio-temporal evolution,the scope of terrorist attacks has undergone an evolutionary process of“increase-decrease-increase”and the spatial distribution pattern gradually shifted from“northwest-southeast”to“northeast-southwest”.The results can provide data support for counter-terrorism in the Gulf of Guinea.