“水-能-碳”约束下河北省可持续发展能力评价

Evaluation of Sustainable Development Capacity in Hebei Province under the Constraints of"Water Energy Carbon"

基于投入产出理论和可持续发展理论,构建河北省“水-能-碳”多目标动态最优化模型,评估分析河北省2017—2030年经济发展状况,模拟分析河北省各区域可持续发展模式并对其可持续发展水平进行评价。结果表明:(1)初始方案基准情景表明,河北省资源消耗及碳排放量涨幅较大;(2)改进情景1和改进情景2的单一政策仿真结果表明,产业结构调整对资源消耗和碳减排影响较显著;(3)强化和综合情景下的组合政策仿真情景表明,强化情景更符合实际情况;(4)从河北省各区域可持续发展能力来看,各区域可持续发展能力存在不平衡性。最后,基于河北省可持续发展水平现状,从生产和生态角度提出相应提升策略。

Based on input-output theory and sustainable development theory,a multi-objective dynamic optimization model of"water energy carbon"in Hebei Province is constructed to evaluate and analyze the economic development status of Hebei Province from 2017 to 2030,simulate and analyze the sustainable development models of various regions in Hebei Province,and evaluate their sustainable development levels.The results indicate that:(a)the baseline scenario of the ini-tial plan indicates that resource consumption and carbon emissions in Hebei Province have in-creased significantly.(b)The single policy simulation results of Improvement Scenario 1 and Im-provement Scenario 2 show that the adjustment of industrial structure has a significant impact on resource consumption and carbon emissions reduction.(c)The combination policy simulation sce-narios under the strengthened and comprehensive scenarios indicate that the strengthened scenario is more in line with the actual situation.(d)From the perspective of the sustainable development ca-pacity of various regions in Hebei Province,there is an imbalance in the sustainable development capacity of each region.Finally,based on the current status of sustainable development in Hebei Province,corresponding improvement strategies are proposed from the perspectives of production and ecology.