南方河流径流序列突变研究——以贺江为例

Mutation of Runoff Sequence of River in Southern China:Taking Hejiang River as an Example

为掌握南方河流水文变化特征,有效应对极端洪旱灾害,以贺江控制性水文站古榄站1956-2010年共55年的年平均流量序列数据,利用有序聚类分析法、滑动t检验法和里海哈林法等多种突变分析方法,计算分析了贺江水文时间序列的突变特征。结果表明:(1)贺江年径流序列在1991年产生了突变现象;(2)年平均流量序列突变是自然与人为活动共同影响的结果,产生突变的主要驱动力是降雨等气候变化。识别贺江径流序列的突变特征可为贺江流域合理开发利用及防灾减灾提供参考。

To grasp the hydrological characteristics of southern river sqstem and effectively responsd to extreme flood and drought,based on the 55-year annual average discharge sequence data of the Hejiang Control Hydrological Station Gulan Station from 1956 to 2010,using various mutation analysis methods such as ordered cluster analysis,sliding t test and Lee-Hehinian method,the au-thors calculate and analyzed the sudden change characteristics of Hejiang hydrological time series.The results show that:(1)the an-nual runoff series of the Hejiang River had a sudden change in 1991;(2)the annual average flow series sudden change is the result of the joint influence of natural and human activities,and the main driving force for the sudden change of the Hejiang River is rain-fall and other climate changes.Identifying the abrupt change characteristics of the Hejiang runoff sequence can provide a reference for rational development and utilization and disaster prevention and mitigation of the Hejiang River basin.