计及双重不确定性的综合能源系统运行优化模型研究

Integrated energy system operation optimization model considering double uncertainties

可再生能源的大规模应用是解决温室效应的重要途径,综合能源系统的开发是提高能源利用率的重要方向,但分布式能源出力随机性会引发系统的安全运行。通过对分布式能源不确定性和能源价格不确定性进行分析,并以清洁能源消纳率最大和系统运行成本最低作为系统优化目标,构建了考虑双重不确定性的综合能源系统优化模型。通过选取长三角地区某综合能源系统示范基地进行算例分析,有效验证了提出模型的可行性,为碳中和目标的实现奠定了基础。

Wide application of renewable energy is effective in alleviate greenhouse gas emissions,and the integrated energy system is an important way to improve its utilization efficiency.However,the randomness of distributed new energy output can lead to unstable operation of the system.Based on the study on the uncertainty of distributed energy outputs and prices,an integrated energy system optimization model considering the two uncertainties above is proposed.And the model takes the highest renewable energy accommodation rate and minimum operating cost as optimization objectives.Finally,the feasibility of the proposed model is verified by an integrated energy system of a demonstrative base located in the Yangzi River Delta,laying the foundation for pursuing carbon neutrality.