陕西省土地利用碳排放变化及预测研究

人类社会经济活动对碳排放产生的影响逐渐成为全球气候变化研究的热点。土地是人类经济活动的主要载体,优化土地利用结构既能在一定程度上改变土地利用的碳源、碳汇格局,也能在一定程度上降低碳排放的速率,并引导经济社会走向低碳发展。陕西省作为西北地区的重要经济体,研究其土地利用碳排放对整个西北地区乃至全国实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。结合陕西省2010—2020年土地利用数据,利用MATLAB软件和SPSS软件进行土地利用碳排放变化及预测分析,为陕西省土地利用结构优化提供科学的数据支撑和理论依据。研究结果表明:研究区8种土地利用类型与碳排放量皆存在线性关系,建设用地与碳排放量关联性最强;陕西省2010年土地利用净碳排放量为6848.54万t,2020年为10517.79万t,10年间增加量为3669.25万t,其中,碳排放量主要来自建设用地和农用地,碳吸收量主要来自林地、草地、园地、水域及水利设施用地和未利用地;利用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测陕西省2030年净碳排放量值为15443.40万t,2060年为42606.17万t,整体碳排放量呈上升趋势,其中,建设用地碳排放量上升趋势最为显著,农用地碳排放量呈下降趋势。基于以上数据分析,提出应合理布局建设用地和农用地,加强林地和草地的保护,推进土地利用在数量结构和空间布局方面进行优化,进而努力实现“双碳”目标。

The impact of human socio-economic activities on carbon emissions has gradually become a hot spot in global climate change research.Land is the main carrier of human economic activities,optimizing the structure of land use can not only change the pattern of carbon sources and sinks of land use to a certain extent,but also reduce the rate of carbon emissions to a certain extent and guide the economic society towards low-carbon development.As an important economy in Northwest China,the study of land use carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province is important for the whole Northwest China and even the whole country to achieve the"double carbon"goal.This study combines the land use data of Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2020,and uses MATLAB software and SPSS software to analyze the changes and predictions of land use carbon emissions,providing scientific data support and theoretical basis for the optimization of land use structure in Shaanxi Province.The results show that:There is a linear relationship between all eight land use types and carbon emissions in the study area,among them,construction land has the strongest correlation with carbon emissions.The net carbon emissions from land use in Shaanxi Province were 68485400 t in 2010 and 105177900 t in 2020,with an increase of 36692500 t.Among them,carbon emissions mainly came from construction land and agricultural land,while carbon absorption mainly came from forest land,grassland,garden land,water and water conservancy facilities land and unused land.Using the gray prediction model GM(1,1),it can get:the predicted net carbon emission value in Shaanxi Province in 2030 is 154434000 t,and in 2060 is 426061700 t,and the overall carbon emission is on an increasing trend.Among them,the rising trend of carbon emission from construction land is the most significant,and the carbon emission from agricultural land is on a decreasing trend.Based on the above data analysis,it is proposed that reasonably arranging the layout of construction land and agricultural land,strengthening the protection of forest land and grassland,promoting the optimization of land use in terms of quantity structure and spatial layout,and then strive to achieve the"double carbon"goal.