“印太转向”下法国的南海政策:解析与评估

France s South China Sea Policy within the Indo-Pacific Pivot:Analysis and Assessment

在谋求“印太转向”的过程中,近年来法国的南海政策发生了较为明显的变化,由此前的“原则中立”发展为事实上的“有限选边站队”,并且体现出倡导维护规则秩序与航行自由、支持以多边主义方式解决问题等突出特点。这些政策变化不仅加剧了南海局势的紧张程度,而且不利于印太地区的和平稳定。虽然目前尚未对中法关系产生明显的消极影响,但也不能排除它在该问题上越过中国底线进而对两国关系产生冲击的可能性。对于中国来说,既不能忽视法国因素对于南海问题的可能影响,也不能夸大它在南海问题上的实际作用,而是应当将其置于中法全面战略伙伴关系的大局之中予以系统谋划。

In the process of pursuing the Indo-Pacific pivot,France s South China Sea policy has undergone an obvious change in recent years,namely,from“neutrality in principle”to“limited side selection”.This policy change embodies prominent features such as advocating the maintenance of rules and order and freedom of navigation,and supporting multilateralism in solving problems and disputes.The change not only aggravates the tension of the South China Sea situation,but also goes against the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific region.Although it has not had an obvious negative impact on China-France relations,the possibility that France will cross China s bottom line on the South China Sea issue and have a huge impact on the relations between the two countries cannot be ruled out.For China,on the one hand,in the future the French element,along its possible impact on the South China Sea issue,could not be ignored,but on the other hand,the actual effect of it can t be overstated.France s South China Sea policy should be considered under the overall situation of China-France comprehensive relationship and China could make a systemic planning,so as to ensure France can be a“cooperator”rather than a“disturber”on the South China Sea issue.