洞庭湖区土地利用变化特征及驱动力分析模拟研究

Analysis and Simulation of Land Use Change Characteristics and Driving Forces in Dongting Lake Area

以2000、2005、2010、2015、2020年洞庭湖区的土地利用现状和相关的社会经济数据为研究对象,运用Binary-Logistic二元回归模型分析了不同影响因子与各类用地类型在空间布局上的关联性,借助CA-Markov、MCR模型对研究期内洞庭湖区的土地利用变化、特征以及驱动因子进行了研究与分析。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年洞庭湖区6种地类变化幅度和活跃度均有所提高,其中建设用地占用耕地的程度明显,林地面积呈小幅减少趋势;(2)分析各地类分布与11个影响因子之间的关系,结果表明:ROC检验值均大于0.8,解释能力最好的因子包括坡度、植被覆盖率等;(3)2035年的土地利用模拟情况与2020年的相比,耕地、林地和草地均保持下降趋势,而水域、建设用地和未利用地均保持上升趋势。

The land use status map and related social and economic data of Dongting Lake area in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020 were taken as the research object,and Binary-Logistic regression model was used to analyze the correlation between different impact factors and spatial layout of various land use types.By CA-Markov and MCR model,land use change,characteristics and driving factors in Dongting Lake area were studied and analyzed.The results showed that:(1)The change range and activity of the six land types in the Dongting Lake area increased from 2000 to 2020.The degree of cultivated land occupied by construction land was obvious.The area of forest land decreased slightly.(2)The relationship between the distribution of classes in various places and 11 influencing factors was analyzed,and the results showed that the ROC test values were greater than 0.8.The factors that best explain are slope,vegetation cover,etc.(3)Compared with 2020,the land use simulation in 2035 maintained a downward trend in arable land,forest land and grassland,while water areas,construction land and unused land maintained an upward trend.