碳中和背景下京津冀能源消费路径协同与优化——基于系统动力学模型

Synergy and Optimization of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Energy Consumption Path in the Context of Carbon Neutrality:Based on System Dynamics Model

碳中和目标要求能源消费结构清洁化转型。本文利用马尔科夫链模型预测能源消费结构,并将结果代入能源消费系统动力学模型对京津冀2021-2060年能源消费总量、分品种能源消费量及能源消费碳排放进行分情景预测。设置基准情景、政策协同碳中和情景和一体化协同碳中和情景,结果表明:碳中和目标有效推动能源消费结构清洁化转型,但在政策协同碳中和情景下会造成能源过度开采和经济效率低下的现象。因而提出保证平等发展权力和要素自由流动的一体化协同碳中和模式,通过产业、科技创新和环保等多项协同措施的共同发力,不仅实现能源消费结构的清洁化转型,同时避免了能源的过度开采并节约了经济成本,能源消费碳排放为三种情景下的最低值,认为是三地区碳中和路径下能源转型的最优路径。

The goal of carbon neutrality requires a clean transformation of the energy consumption structure.In this paper,the Markov chain model is used to predict the energy consumption structure,and the results are substituted into the energy consumption system dynamics model to forecast the total energy consumption,energy consumption by variety and carbon emissions of energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2021 to 2060.Setting the baseline scenario,the policy coordinated carbon neutral scenario and the integrated coordinated carbon neutral scenario,the results show that the carbon neutral goal effectively promotes the clean transformation of energy consumption structure,but under the policy coordinated carbon neutral scenario,it will cause the phenomenon of over-exploitation of energy and low economic efficiency.Therefore,the integrated collaborative carbon neutral model is proposed to ensure equal development rights and free flow of elements.Through the joint efforts of a number of collaborative measures such as industry,scientific and technological innovation and environmental protection,it not only realizes the clean transformation of energy consumption structure,but also avoids over-exploitation of energy and saves economic costs.The carbon emission of energy consumption is the lowest value under the three scenarios.It is considered to be the optimal path of energy transformation under the carbon-neutral path of the three regions.