基于SDA和SPA的西藏地区碳排放驱动因素与路径分析

Analysis of Impact Factors and Path on Carbon Emission in Tibet Based on SDA and SPA

探究碳排放增量的驱动因素并筛选具有影响力的碳排路径对西藏地区有的放矢地制定减排政策有重要意义。本文通过SDA从碳排放强度、投入产出结构、最终需求结构以及最终需求规模四个方面进行结构分解分析,识别影响碳排放变动的主要动因;利用SPA模型识别并筛选2012和2017年第一至第三生产阶段的关键碳排路径,得出以下结论:①碳排放强度效应是碳减排最重要的驱动力,其次是投入产出结构效应,而最终需求规模效应对碳排放增长的影响力最大,其次是最终需求结构效应。②第二生产阶段对西藏地区碳排放的贡献最大,且影响力逐渐加深。③在筛选出的最具影响力的20条碳排放路径中,二阶产业链数量与碳排放量占比均为最大,且呈增长趋势。

Exploring the driving factors of carbon emission increase and screening influential carbon emission paths is of great significance to formulate targeted emission reduction policies in Tibet.Based on SDA,this paper analyzes the structure of carbon emission intensity,input-output structure,final demand structure and final demand scale,and identifies the main drivers affecting the change of carbon emission.The SPA model was used to identify and screen the key carbon emission paths in the first to third production stages in 2012 and 2017,and the following conclusions were drawn:①Carbon emission intensity effect is the most important driving force for carbon emission reduction,followed by the input-output structure effect,and the final demand scale effect has the greatest influence on the growth of carbon emissions,followed by the final demand structure effect.②The second production stage made the largest contribution to carbon emissions in Tibet,and its influence gradually deepened.③Among the 20 most influential carbon emission paths selected,the number of second-order industrial chains and the proportion of carbon emissions are both the largest and show an increasing trend.