基于YAAHP的城市地下综合管廊全生命周期风险评估

Life Cycle Risk Assessment of Urban Underground Integrated Pipeline Corridor Based on YAAHP

文章基于投资方的视角,结合本市中心城区综合管廊项目应用实例,对综合管廊全生命周期风险评估开展研究。通过德尔菲法问卷调查法等方法结合案例进行风险因素识别,构建综合管廊全生命周期风险评价指标体系,包括6个一级指标及21个二级指标,采用层次分析法(AHP)+模糊综合评价法(FCE),借助YAAHP辅助软件进行建模与计算分析。通过构建层次模型,确定风险权重,对风险概率和风险后果进行评估,建立风险矩阵,确定风险等级。文章从多层次进行全面风险分析评估,研究方法与结论有助于系统性地加强综合管廊全生命周期风险管控,可为类似项目提供参考。

Based on the perspective of investors and combined with the application example of the integrated management corridor project in the central urban area of this city,this paper studies the risk assessment of the whole life cycle of the integrated management corridor.The risk factors were identified by Delphi method and other methods combined with cases,and the risk assessment index system for the whole life cycle of the integrated pipeline corridor was constructed,including 6 first-level indicators and 21 second-level indicators.The analytic hierarchy process(AHP)+fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE)method was adopted,and the auxiliary software YAAHP was used for modeling and calculation analysis.By building a hierarchical model,the risk weight is determined,the risk probability and risk consequences are evaluated,the risk matrix is established and the risk level is determined.This paper makes a comprehensive risk analysis and assessment from multiple levels.The research methods and conclusions are helpful to systematically strengthen the risk management and control of the whole life cycle of the integrated pipeline corridor,and can provide reference for similar projects.