日本与中国人口老龄化时空演化特征及其影响因子比较研究

Comparative study on the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in Japan and China

人口老龄化已成为全球普遍现象,探析人口老龄化时空演化特征并辨别其影响因子有助于积极应对区域老龄化发展。利用标准差椭圆分析法分析了1995—2020年日本县域与中国省域人口老龄化时空演化特征,利用地理探测器方法探明了日本与中国人口老龄化空间演化过程中不同影响因子的影响方向与程度。研究发现:①日本与中国的人口老龄化均呈增长趋势,但中国增速高于日本。两国人口老龄化重心均表现出向本国东北方向偏移的趋势;两国人口老龄化空间分布变化幅度均较小,但日本呈波动式外延态势,中国则呈整体扩大局部收缩态势。②国内生产总值、基本医疗保险/国民健康保险参保人数、公园面积比例3个指标对人口老龄化的空间演化特征具有正向影响;人口自然增长率、医院床位利用率、人均医疗保健费用支出比例3个指标则产生负向影响。③人口自然增长率的因子空间演化影响力日本高于中国,且促使日本人口老龄化的空间演化呈现分化趋势;国内生产总值、基本医疗保险/国民健康保险参保人数、公园面积比例、医院床位利用率、人均医疗保健费用支出比例5个因子的空间演化影响力日本均低于中国,且促使中国人口老龄化的空间演化作用趋于分散。④双因子交互作用下的解释力对日本与中国人口老龄化的空间演化影响更大。

Population aging has become a common global phenomenon,and exploring the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of population aging and its influencing factors can help to cope with the development of regional aging actively.Using the standard deviation ellipse analysis,this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of population aging in Japanese prefectures and Chinese provinces from 1995 to 2020.Then,this paper used the geographic probe method to explore the direction and degree of influence of different influencing factors in the spatial evolution of population aging in Japan and China.The study found that:①Japan and China showed an increasing trend of population aging,but China′s growth rate was higher than Japan′s.The center of gravity of population aging in both countries showed a tendency to shift toward the northeast of the country.The changes in the spatial distribution of population aging were relatively small.Japan showed a fluctuating outward process,while China showed an overall expansion and local contraction.②Three indicators,namely,gross domestic product,the number of basic health insurance participants,and the proportion of park area,had positive effects on the spatial evolutionary characteristics of population aging.Three indicators,namely,natural population growth rate,hospital bed utilization rate,and the proportion of health care expenditure per capita had adverse effects.③The spatial evolutionary influence of the factors of natural population growth rate was higher in Japan than in China,and the spatial evolution of factors contributing to population aging in Japan tends to diverge.The spatial evolutionary influence of five factors,namely,gross domestic product,number of basic health insurance participants,the proportion of park area,hospital bed utilization rate,and proportion of health care expenditure per capita,were lower in Japan than in China,and the spatial evolutionary influence of factors contributing to population aging in China tended to diverge.④The explanatory power of the two-factor interaction significantly impacted the spatial evolution of population aging in Japan and China.