基于马尔科夫链理论的电动汽车集群充电负荷建模及可调能力评估

Charging Load Modeling and Dispatchable Capability Evaluation of Electric Vehicle Cluster Based on Markov Chain Theory

针对电动汽车(electricvehicle,EV)用户单体功率小、电池容量异质性、出行行为差异大等问题,提出面向控制、考虑用户出行链的EV集群充电负荷建模方法,能够让EV集群更好地参与电网调度运行。首先,对EV用户行为的马尔科夫特性进行了分析,在划分EV多状态荷电状态区间的基础上,推导了其充电与出行状态区间内的一步转移概率,建立了基于马尔科夫链理论考虑出行特征的EV集群充电负荷模型;然后,设计了EV集群可调能力评估流程,构建了EV集群可调能力评估方法;最后,对EV集群模型及可调能力评估方法进行了仿真验证,与多种方法进行对比,结果表明,所提聚合模型和评估方法更准确、有效。

Aiming at the problems of small unit power,heterogeneity of battery capacity and different travel behavior of electric vehicle(electric vehicle,EV)users,a charging load modeling method of EV cluster considering users’travel chain is proposed,which can make EV cluster better participate in power grid dispatching and operation.Firstly,the Markov property of EV users’behavior is analyzed,and on the basis of dividing the multi-state charge state interval of EV,the one-step transition probability in the interval of charging and travel state is derived,and the charging load model of EV cluster considering travel characteristics is established based on Markov chain theory.Then,the evaluation process of dispatchable capability for EV cluster is designed,and the evaluation method of dispatchable capability is constructed.Finally,the aggregation model and dispatchable capability evaluation method for EV cluster are simulated and verified,and the results show that the aggregation model and evaluation method are more accurate and effective compared with various algorithm.