云南省卫生总费用影响因素分析及趋势预测

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Trend Prediction of Yunnan’s Total Health Expenditure

描述当前云南省卫生总费用发展状况,运用灰色关联分析得出了影响云南省卫生总费用增长的各因素及其影响程度,构建GM(1,1)模型对卫生总费用筹资规模进行了预测。结果表明:经济因素和卫生资源配置是云南省卫生总费用不断增长的重要影响因素;预计2023年之后,云南省卫生总费用占GDP的比重将超过警戒值8%。建议大力发展经济,保持云南省卫生总费用增长和GDP增长的合理关系,优化卫生筹资结构,增加政府卫生投入,从而减轻居民医疗负担。

To describe the development of total health expenditure in Yunnan Province,the grey correlation analysis was used to gets the degree of influence of various factors that affect the growth of the total health expenditure in Yunnan Province,the GM(1,1)model was built to predict the financing scale of total health expenditure.The results indicate that economic and health resource allocation are important factors influencing the continuous increase of total health expenditure;it is estimated that after 2023,the rate of total health expenditure in GDP will exceed the warning value by 8%.We should vigorously develop the economy,maintaining a reasonable relationship between the growth of total health expenditure and GDP in Yunnan province,optimize health financing structure,increase government investment of health and thus reduce the medical burden of residents.