基于PSRM模型的京津冀地区生态脆弱性时空演变

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Ecological Vulnerability in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on PSRM Model

京津冀地区作为中国三大城市群之一,经济实力雄厚,但其生态脆弱性问题十分突出,为达到经济-社会-生态综合发展,对京津冀地区生态环境现状进行分析显得尤为重要.基于PSRM模型,选取PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)和土壤侵蚀强度等19项代表性指标,结合序关系法、CRITIC法、锡尔系数、热点分析和地理探测器等方法探究京津冀地区生态脆弱性时空演变特征及影响因素.结果表明,京津冀地区在2009~2019年:①生态脆弱性先升后降,脆弱区大体呈现"东北-西南"走向,东北、西南部生态环境优于中南、西北部;②空间相关程度呈"V"形浮动,冷热点区域与脆弱性空间格局基本一致;③研究区内生物丰度、PM_(10)和人类干扰指数对京津冀地区生态脆弱性影响力较大.最后根据生态脆弱性分析结果,对京津冀地区生态环境与可持续发展提出建议.

As one of the three major urban agglomerations in China,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region has strong economic strength but its ecological fragility is very prominent.To pursue the comprehensive development of economy and ecology,it is very important to analyze the ecological environment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.Here,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was selected as the research area,and 19 indicators were selected to construct an evolution system based on the PSRM model.The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of ecological vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region were explored by combining the order relation method,CRITIC method,Theil index,and hot spot analysis,and the influencing factors were calculated via geographic detector.The results showed that:①the ecological vulnerability first increased and then decreased in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.The vulnerable areas showed a northeast-southwest trend,and the ecological environment in the northeast and southwest regions was better than that in the central and southern regions.The area of slight vulnerability in 2014 increased by 6803.01 km^(2) compared with that in 2009.The area of mild vulnerability decreased by 130.41 km^(2),and the area of moderate vulnerability decreased by 26537.31 km^(2) compared with that in 2009.The areas of severe and extremely vulnerable status increased by 19512.9 km^(2) and 351.81 km^(2),respectively,compared with those in 2009.The habitat situation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region improved significantly from 2014 to 2019.Compared with that in 2014,the areas of mild,moderate,severe,and extremely vulnerable decreased by 2248.29 km^(2),2220.21 km^(2),7988.67 km^(2),and 55.98 km^(2),respectively.The light area increased by 12513.15 km^(2) compared with that in 2014.②According to the calculation results of the Theil index,the spatial correlation degree of ecological vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region exhibited a V-shaped fluctuation,and the spatial pattern of the cold and hot areas was predominantly consistent with that of the vulnerability.③Biological abundance,PM_(10),and the human disturbance index had a significant influence on the spatial differentiation of ecological vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.Based on the results of ecological vulnerability analysis,some suggestions on the ecological environment and sustainable development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region were proposed.