中国大豆时空演变特征及其影响因素分析

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of soybean production in China

【目的】探索大豆产量时空特征及其影响因素,实现大豆区域布局优化,保障粮食安全。【方法】依据1997-2020年中国省域年度数据,采用空间基尼系数、产业集中度、区位熵指数、空间自相关等方法分析大豆生产空间相关性,建立动态空间面板杜宾模型研究驱动因素对大豆生产时空演变的影响。【结果】大豆生产存在显著的空间相关性。大豆平均产量、自然受灾率、城镇化率指标短期内的改善对本地区和邻近地区的大豆生产具有促进作用,长期则具有抑制作用;大豆技术水平、化肥施用量指标在短期内的改善对本地区和邻近地区的大豆生产具有抑制作用,长期效应来看,大豆技术水平对本地区和邻近地区的大豆生产具有显著促进作用;化肥施用量对大豆生产的直接效应显著为正,空间效应不显著。【结论】充分考虑大豆生产的空间效应,引导区域提高各投入要素合理的空间配置,有利于促进大豆生产能力提高,保障大豆供给安全。

【Objective】The study was carried out to explore the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of soybean production realize the optimization of soybean regional layout and ensure food security.【Method】Using the annual data of the provinces from 1997 to 2020,this paper analyzes the spatial correlation of soybean production with the methods of spatial Gini coefficient,industrial concentration,location entropy and spatial autocorrelation to establish a dynamic spatial panel Durbin model to study the impact of driving factors on the spatial-temporal evolution of soybean production.【Result】There are positive spatial correlation in soybean production.The average soybean yield,natural disaster rate and urbanization rate have a significant promotion effect on soybean production in the local and adjacent areas in the short term,but have an inhibitory effect the long term.In the short term,the improvement of soybean technology level and chemical fertilizer application rate have a significant inhibitory effect on soybean production in the local area and adjacent areas.In the long term,the soybean technology level has a significant promoting effect on the soybean production in the local and adjacent areas.The direct effect of fertilizer application on soybean production is significantly positive,while the spatial effect is not significant.【Conclusion】Fully considering the spatial effect of soybean production and guiding the region to improve the reasonable spatial allocation of each input factor will be conducive to promoting the improvement of soybean production capacity and ensuring the security of soybean supply.