碳排放约束、信贷约束与宏观经济波动

Impact of Constraints on Carbon Emission and Credit on Macroeconomic Fluctuations

经验证据表明,中国的碳排放周期与宏观经济周期高度协同。在碳达峰、碳中和目标背景下,协调减碳与经济稳定之间的关系正成为中国经济面临的现实挑战,研究碳排放约束下宏观经济波动的传导机制具有重要意义。通过构建一个能够刻画企业减碳行为的动态随机一般均衡模型,从理论上揭示碳排放约束对宏观经济波动的影响。研究发现:如果仅考虑企业面临的碳排放约束,经济波动会被显著低估;一旦叠加企业同时面临的信贷约束,经济波动会被显著放大。“碳排放—信贷”双约束下经济波动的具体传导机制表现为:碳排放约束在限制企业产出的同时也导致其资产价格降低,这使企业提供给银行的抵押品价值缩水,进而导致信贷约束收紧,企业被迫降低信贷规模;信贷规模降低会同时抑制企业投资和减碳努力,从而进一步加剧产出降低幅度,其在一般均衡下形成一个正反馈机制,将显著放大宏观经济波动。在此基础上,将模型中的信贷约束进一步拓展为允许企业以碳排放权抵押融资,政策模拟显示,碳排放权抵押有助于放松企业信贷约束,从而一定程度上缓解碳排放约束下的经济波动。在统筹有序做好碳达峰、碳中和工作,纠正运动式减碳的要求下,应充分评估碳排放约束对经济波动的影响,并积极利用碳排放权抵押等创新金融支持工具促进宏观经济稳定。

Empirical evidence shows there is a high synergy between China’s carbon emission cycle and the macroeconomic cycle.In the background of achieving the carbon peaking and neutrality goals,balancing the relationship between carbon reduction and economic stability is a challenge for China’s economy.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the conduction mechanism of macroeconomic fluctuations under carbon emission constraints.Theoretically,the present paper reveals the impact of carbon emission constraints on macroeconomic fluctuations by a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model to estimate enterprises’actions to reduce emissions.The findings show that economic fluctuations could be significantly underestimated when the carbon emission constraints that the enterprise faces are considered only,but the fluctuations are notably amplified when credit constraints are considered meanwhile.The conduction mechanism under the“carbon emission-credit”constraints is manifested in two aspects.First,while curtailing enterprises’output,carbon emission constraints lower their asset prices,diminishing the value of collateral provided to banks,thereby tightening their credit constraints and reducing their credits.Second,the credit reduction hampers both corporate investment and efforts to cut emissions,and further lowers their output.This results in a positive feedback mechanism in general equilibrium that significantly amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations.Given this situation,the research of this paper extends the credit constraint in the DSGE model to allow enterprises to pledge carbon emission rights for financing.The policy simulation demonstrates that carbon emission right pledging can ease credit constraints on enterprises,thus mitigating economic fluctuations caused by carbon emission constraints to some extent.Therefore,to pursue the dual carbon goals in a coordinated and orderly manner instead of taking unsustainable measures,the impact of carbon emission constraints on economic fluctuations should be comprehensively evaluated,and more innovative financial support tools like carbon emission right pledge should be leveraged to promote macroeconomic stability.