中国生育政策的文本量化分析——基于政策工具、政策包容性、政策力度的三维分析框架

Text quantitative study of China's fertility policy:A three-dimensional analysis framework based on policy tools,policy inclusiveness,and policy strength

目的:对我国实施全面二孩政策以来的生育政策进行文本量化分析,为完善我国生育政策提供建议。方法:检索2016年以来发布的国家层面的生育政策文本,构建政策工具、政策包容性、政策力度三维分析框架,并对政策文本进行多维度及交叉对比分析。结果:本文共纳入45份政策文本,命令及规制性工具、能力建设性工具、激励性工具和信息及劝诫性工具占比依次为50.90%、39.16%、9.34%和9.94%;政策文本在尊重生育理念、促进生育公平、提升社会福祉三个政策包容性类型上分别占比12.14%、20.39%、67.48%;我国生育政策力度平均得分为2.67。结论:生育政策的政策工具内部均衡性不足,激励性与信息及劝诫性工具的使用有待加强;政策包容性类型丰富但使用不均衡,需要进一步促进性别平等和生育公平;政策力度整体偏弱,且与政策主体协调性不足,应进一步深化多部门参与协作,从财政、教育、文化等多个层面落实好生育配套措施,创建生育友好型社会。

Objective:The study is to provide suggestions for improving China's fertility policy system on the basis of a text quantitative analysis of China's fertility policy texts since the implementation of the universal two-child policy.Methods:Upon retrieving policy texts released by State or central-level fertility after 2016,a three-dimensional analysis framework of policy tools,policy inclusiveness,and policy strength is constructed,within which multidimensional and cross-comparative analyses of policy texts were conducted.Results:A total of 45 policy texts are included,and the percentages of command and regulation tools,capacity construction tools,incentive tools,and information exhortation tools are 50.90%,39.16%,9.34%,and 9.94%,respectively;the percentages of policy texts falling into policy inclusiveness type regarding respect of concept of fertility,promotion of fertility equity,and enhancement of social well-being are 12.14%,20.39%,and 67.48%respectively;the average strength of fertility policy scores 2.67.Conclusion:The internal balance of policy tools of fertility policy is insufficient,and the application of motivational and exhortation tools needs to be strengthened;policy inclusiveness is abundant but unevenly used,and gender equality and fertility equity need to be further promoted;the overall policy strength is weak and coordination with policy subjects is insufficient,and multi-sectoral participation and collaboration should be further deepened,and supporting measures for childbirth should be implemented from the perspectives of finance,education,and culture to create a fertility-friendly society.