乌克兰危机背景下德国对俄政策的转型——基于对外政策学习理论的分析

The Transformation of Germany's Policy Towards Russia in the Context of the Ukraine Crisis:An Analysis Based on the Theory of Foreign Policy Learning

俄乌冲突爆发后,德国的外交与安全政策迎来了“时代转折”。本文基于综合的对外政策学习理论框架,分析2022年乌克兰危机背景下德国对俄政策转型及其动因。研究结果显示,德国对俄政策经历了政策目标和工具的双重转向,达到了“复杂学习”水平。德国对俄政策实现转型,其动因在于政府内部认知信念发生了转变、盟友的政策扩散,以及吸取了2014年乌克兰危机后对俄制裁不足的教训,并将2010年后有效制裁伊朗的政策转移至对俄政策。但德国对俄政策学习存在局限性,政党政治、公众舆论、克制文化以及利益集团等是德国对俄政策转型可能面临的制约因素。

Germany's foreign and security policy has undergone a transformation after the outbreak of the Ukraine Crisis in 2022.Employing a comprehensive framework of foreign policy learning theory,this paper analyzes the transformation of Germany's policy towards Russia and the motives behind it.It finds that Germany's policy towards Russia has experienced dual transformation in both policy goals and instruments,reaching the level of"complex learning",which was driven by factors such as the changing threat perceptions within the German government,policy dissemination from its allies,lessons learnt from its sanctions after the 2014 Ukraine crisis and its transplanting of the post-2010 sanctions on Iran to Russia.However,limitations exist in Germany's policy learning,among which,party politics,public opinion,"culture of restraint"and interest groups will exert potential constraints on the transformation of its Russian policy.