上海生活垃圾处理碳排放现状与预测研究

The Status and Prediction of Carbon Emission from Domestic Waste Treatment in Shanghai

基于《省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)》和《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》给出的碳核算方法,结合上海市统计年鉴和环卫规划等相关数据,对上海市2008—2035年生活垃圾直接碳排放量进行了核算。研究发现:2021年生活垃圾处理碳排放量为4.62×10^(6)tCO_(2)e,为历史最高值,其中干垃圾焚烧碳排放占比84%;未来生活垃圾若按照规划产生量和预期特性发展,碳排放量将持续增加。由于干垃圾中塑料类含量的持续升高是造成生活垃圾处理直接碳排放量增加的重要原因,因此在未能考虑碳捕捉、利用与封存(CCUS)技术应用的情况下,应当通过政策引导和场景优化等措施,使更少的塑料被焚烧。以2025年前后直接碳排放量达峰(峰值量为5.83×10^(6)tCO_(2)e)为例,给出了典型年份的人均生活垃圾产生量和干垃圾中塑料含量的控制值。

Based on the carbon accounting methods provided from The Guidelines for the Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories(Trial)and The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,combined with relevant data from the statistical yearbook and environmental sanitation planning of Shanghai,the direct carbon emissions of domestic waste in Shanghai from 2008 to 2035 were calculated.In 2021,the carbon emissions from domestic waste treatment reached 4.62 million tons of CO_(2)e,with dry waste incineration accounted for 84%of the carbon emissions.According to the planned output and expected characteristics,the carbon emissions would continue to increase.As the continuous increase in the content of plastics in dry waste was an important reason for the increase of direct carbon emissions from domestic waste treatment,in the absence of considering the application of CCUS(carbon capture,utilization,and storage)technology,measures such as policy guidance and scenario optimization should be taken to ensure that less plastics would be incinerated.Taking the peak of direct carbon emissions reached in 2025(with a peak of 5.83 million tons of CO_(2)e)as an example,the control values for the per capita domestic waste output and the plastic content in dry waste in typical years were calculated.