减税降费、转移支付与地方政府财政可持续性——基于中部六省地市级政府财政空间的实证研究

Tax Cuts and Fee Reductions,Transfer Payments and the Fiscal Sustainability of Local Governments:An Empirical Study on Fiscal Space of Municipal Government in Six Provinces of Central China

利用2012-2020年中部六省82个地市的面板数据,以“有效财政空间”量化财政可持续性,采用系统GMM方法考察减税降费、转移支付对地方政府财政可持续性的影响。研究发现,我国地方政府虽然出现“财政疲劳”现象,但总体风险可控;总体上转移支付扭曲了地方政府财政行为,不利于提升地方政府财政可持续性,而减税降费对地方政府财政可持续性则表现出异质性,而且转移支付对减税降费还起到了正向调节的作用。因此,为提升地方政府财政可持续性,一方面要引导、改变地方政府财政行为,完善官员考评体系和转移支付制度;另一方面要考虑政策效应的异质性,因地施策,充分发挥政策的联动效应。

Using the panel data of 82 cities in six provinces in central China from 2012 to 2020,this paper quantifies fiscal sustainability with the“effective fiscal space”,and uses the systematic GMM method to investigate the impact of tax and fee reductions and transfer payments on the fiscal sustainability of local governments.The research finds that although the current local government appeared“financial fatigue”phenomenon,but the overall risk is controllable;on the whole,transfer payment distorts the financial behavior of local governments and is not conducive to improving the sustainability of local government finance.However,tax and fee reduction show heterogeneity on the sustainability of local government finance,and transfer payment also plays a positive role in regulating tax and fee reduction.Therefore,in order to promote the sustainability of local government finance,on the one hand,the financial behavior of local government should be guided and changed,the official evaluation system and transfer payment system should be improved;on the other hand,the heterogeneity of policy effects should be considered to implement policies according to local conditions,and give full play to the linkage effect of policies.