四川省农业经济发展水平时空格局演变特征分析——基于2006—2019年面板数据

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERN EVOLUTION OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT LEVEL IN SICHUAN PROVINCE——BASED ON PANEL DATA FROM 2006 TO 2019

[目的]分析四川省农业经济发展水平时空格局演变特征,对促进四川省农业经济健康发展具有重要意义。[方法]文章以四川省五大经济区为主要研究单元,通过构建评价指标体系,采用组合赋权法确定指标权重,对2006—2019年四川省农业经济发展水平进行测度,运用泰尔指数、自然断点分级法和重心分析模型等方法,对四川省农业经济发展水平时空格局演化特征进行分析。[结果](1)2006—2019年四川省农业经济发展水平有所提高,五大经济区中除成都平原经济区农业经济发展水平有所降低外,其余经济区农业经济发展水平均有提高;(2)四川省农业经济发展水平总差异表现为“先升后降”的变化趋势,引导形成全省总差异的是区域内差异。(3)五大经济区间农业经济发展水平差异较大,成都平原经济区远大于川西北生态经济区的农业经济发展水平;五大经济区内部发展也不均衡,内部差异最大的是攀西经济区。各市(州)空间演化特征不明显,存在“阶层固化”现象。(4)四川省东部偏南方向是农业经济发展的高密度地带,2006—2019年经济重心整体逐渐向南偏移,东西方向上形成“拉锯战”模式,2019年呈现向西南转移态势。[结论]为促进四川省农业经济协调发展,一方面要发挥成都平原经济区及成都市的辐射带动作用,加快形成“一强多极,区域协同”的发展格局;另一方面应重视供给侧结构性改革,合理调整和优化产业结构;最后建议加大“人、财、物”的投入力度,为确保四川省农业经济稳定、可持续发展提供基础保障。

It is of great significance to analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of agricultural economy development level in Sichuan province,which is important to promote the healthy development of agricultural economy in Sichuan province.Taking five economic zones in Sichuan province as the main research unit,the agricultural economic development level of Sichuan province from 2006 to 2019 was measured by constructing an evaluation index system and the index weight was determined by the combination weighting method.The Theil index,natural breakpoint classification method and gravity center analysis model was used to analyze the spatialtemporal pattern characteristics of agricultural economic development in Sichuan province.The results showed that:(1) The level of agricultural economic development in Sichuan province increased from 2006 to 2019.Except for Chengdu Plain Economic zone,the level of agricultural economic development in the five economic zones decreased,the level of agricultural economic development in other economic zones increased.(2) The total difference of agricultural economic development level in Sichuan province showed a change trend of "rising first and then falling",and it was the regional difference that led to the total difference of the province.(3) The level of agricultural economic development in the five economic zones was quite different.The level of agricultural economic development in Chengdu Plain Economic Zone was much higher than that in Northwest Sichuan Ecological Economic Zone.The internal development of the five economic zones was also uneven,the biggest internal difference was Panxi Economic Zone.The spatial evolution characteristics of cities(prefectures) were not obvious,and there was a phenomenon of "stratum solidification".(4) The south-central direction of the eastern part of Sichuan province was a high-density area of agricultural economic development.From 2006 to 2019,the economic center gradually shifted southward,forming a "tug of war" pattern in the east-west direction,and in 2019,it showed a trend of shifting to the southwest.In short,to promote the coordinated development of agricultural economy in Sichuan province,on the one hand,it is necessary to give full play to the radiative driving role of Chengdu Plain Economic Zone and Chengdu city,and accelerate the formation of the development pattern of "one strong multi-pole and regional coordination".On the other hand,we should pay attention to the supply-side structural reform and adjust and optimize the industrial structure reasonably.Finally,it is suggested to increase the input of human,financial and material to provide basic guarantee for the stable and sustainable development of agricultural economy in Sichuan province.