我国老年人高龄概率和高龄老人百岁概率及其相关因素分析

Analysis on the advanced age probability,centenarians probability and relative factors in Chinese elderly

目的 分析省级水平老年人高龄概率,以及高龄老人百岁概率及其相关因素,为促进健康老龄化提供科学依据。方法 基于2000年和2020年全国人口普查省级水平分年龄组人口数据,计算全国水平和省级水平高龄概率60~64和百岁概率80~84。采用ARCGIS 10.6.1软件进行空间自相关分析探索其空间聚集性,采用SPSS 25.0软件进行多重线性回归分析探索2000年省级水平各因素与高龄概率60~64及百岁概率80~84的相关性,并采用2010年数据进行敏感性分析。结果 2020年全国高龄概率60~64为48.88%,女性(56.05%)高于男性(42.25%),上海市最高(65.44%),其次是北京市(62.43%)和海南省(58.77%);西藏自治区最低(28.04%),其次是甘肃省(38.64%)和青海省(38.71%)。全国百岁概率80~84为1.49%,女性(1.75%)高于男性(1.01%),海南省最高(5.57%),其次是黑龙江省(4.53%)和北京市(3.23%);宁夏回族自治区最低(0.74%),其次是甘肃省(0.76%)和湖南省(0.82%)。省级水平的高龄概率60~64存在空间自相关关系(Moran’s I=0.15,P<0.05),百岁概率80~84不存在空间自相关关系(Moran’s I=0.08,P>0.05)。多重线性回归分析结果显示,2000年省级水平的人均地区生产总值、人均受教育年限、年平均气温等因素与高龄概率60~64呈正相关,相应的偏相关系数分别为4.012(95%CI:0.629~7.396)、2.184(95%CI:0.202~4.166)和0.989(95%CI:0.607~1.371),但省级水平的各因素与百岁概率80~84之间的线性相关关系无统计学意义(P>0.05)。基于2010年协变量数据的敏感性分析也证实了结果的稳定性。结论 社会经济发展和医疗服务可及性的改善有助于提高居民的高龄概率,但是对促进个体极端长寿(百岁老人)的作用较小。

Objective To analyze the advanced age probability,centenarians probability and relative factors at provincial level,and provide the scientific basis for promoting the healthy aging.Methods According to provincial population data by age group from national census in 2000 and 2020,the advanced age probability60-64 and centenarians probability80-84 were calculated at national level and provincial level.Spatial auto-correlation analysis was used with ARCGIS 10.6.1 software to explore the spatial cluster.Multiple linear regression model was used with SPSS 25.0 software to examine the association between some related factors at provincial level and the advanced age probability60-64 as well as centenarians probability80-84.The data in 2010 were used for the sensitivity analysis.Results In 2020,the national advanced age probability60-64 was 48.88%.The advanced age probability60-64(56.05%)in females was significantly higher than that(42.25%)in males;the order of advanced age probability60-64 was Shanghai(65.44%),Beijing(62.43%)and Hainan(58.77%),the low order was Tibet(28.04%),Gansu(38.64%)and Qinghai(38.71%).The national centenarians probability80-84 was 1.49%.The centenarians probability80-84(1.75%)in females was significantly higher than that(1.01%)in males;the order of centenarians probability80-84 was Hainan(5.57%),Heilongjiang(4.53%)and Beijing(3.23%),the low order was Ningxia(0.74%),Gansu(0.76%)and Hunan(0.82%).There was spatial auto-correlation(Moran's I=0.15,P<0.05)in advanced age probability60-64 at provincial level,but there was no spatial auto-correlation in centenarians probability80-84(Moran's I=0.08,P>0.05).Multiple linear regression model showed that,advanced age probability60-64 correlated positively with per capital gross regional product,per capital years of education and annual average temperature at provincial level in 2000,the corresponding partial correlation coefficient were 4.012(95%CI:0.629-7.396),2.184(95%CI:0.202-4.166)and 0.989(95%CI:0.607-1.371),respectively.No statistically significant correlation was observed between these factors and the centenarians probability80-84 at provincial level(P>0.05).The results of sensitivity analysis based on these provincial related factors in 2010 also confirmed the stability of these findings.Conclusion Socioeconomic development and improved access to medical services can enhance the advanced age probability in residents,but the role of promoting individual extreme longevity(centenarians)is still relatively limited.