人口老龄化背景下我国税收政策的宏观效应与中长期有效性研究——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

Research on the Effectiveness of China’s Tax Policy under the Background of Aging Population--Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

近年来围绕高质量发展,我国实施了以减税降费为主导的税收政策。为精准衡量当前政策的有效性,对“十四五”时期和2035远景发展阶段的政策制定提供指引,文章构建了一个包含我国税制结构和人口结构的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,考察当前减税降费政策的传导机制和经济效果。研究发现,当前我国减税降费政策实施中,商品税减税政策效果最佳,其次是劳动收入课税的减税政策,再次是投资课税减税政策。从中长期来看,随着人口老龄化程度的不断加深,多数税收政策调控的正面效果被削弱。根据上述结论,文章从经济逆周期的减税工具选择、供给侧改革的税制结构调整和支持积极应对人口老龄化战略三个视角提出当前减税降费的对策建议。

In recent years,centering on high-quality development,China has implemented a tax policy dominated by tax reduction and fee reduction.In order to accurately measure the effectiveness of the current policy and provide guidance for policy-making in the“14th five year plan”period and 2035 long-term development stage,this paper constructs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including China’s tax system structure and population structure to examine the transmission mechanism and economic effect of the current tax and fee reduction policy.The results show that the effect of commodity tax reduction is the best,followed by labor tax reduction.In the medium and long term,with the deepening of population aging,the positive effects of most tax policies will be weakened.According to the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from three perspectives:the choice of tax reduction tools in the reverse cycle of economy,the adjustment of tax structure in the supply side reform and the support of the strategy of actively coping with the aging population.