碳排放影响因素及达峰路径研究——基于四川省的分析

Factors Influencing Carbon Emission and Carbon Peak Reaching Pathways:Evidence from Sichuan Province

基于四川省1997—2019年的碳排放历史数据,通过STIRPAT扩展模型定量分析四川省人均碳排放的影响因素。研究显示:能源结构对四川省人均碳排放量的影响最大,其次是能源强度和经济发展水平。在此基础上,预测了粗放情景、基准情景、低碳节能情景和经济放缓情景下四川省2020—2035年碳排放量的峰值和“碳达峰”时间。结果表明,在低碳节能情景下,四川省可以在兼顾经济、社会发展的同时,提前实现“碳达峰”目标,碳峰值为334.38百万吨。

Based on the historical data of carbon emissions in Sichuan Province from 1997 to 2019,this paper quantitatively analyzes the influencing factors of per capita carbon emissions in Sichuan Province through the STIRPAT extended model.The study shows that the energy structure has the greatest influence on per capita carbon emissions,fllowed by energy intensity and economic development level.This paper predicts the peak carbon emissions in Sichuan Province from 2020 to 2035 and the"carbon peak"time under the extensive,baseline,low-carbon,and economic slowdown scenarios.The results show that in the low-carbon scenario,Sichuan Province can achieve the"carbon peak"target ahead of schedule while considering economic and social development,with a peak carbon emission of 334.38 Mt.