农民收入质量:逻辑建构、测度评价与动态演进

Farmer Income Quality:Logical Construction,Measure Evaluation and Dynamic Evolution

本文采用1993-2021年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,构建农民收入质量评估指标体系,综合运用自然间断点分级法、泰尔指数、莫兰指数等方法探究农民收入质量的等级评价、区域差异与时空演进。研究发现:第一,全国农民收入质量呈现稳步增长趋势,但省际层面存在明显差异,各维度增速由小到大依次为收入知识性、收入成长性、收入结构性和收入充足性;第二,全国农民收入质量等级不断提升,已完成从低、中低等级为主向中高、高等级为主的转变,但发展仍不充分;第三,四大地区、三大粮食功能区、五大经济带农民收入质量增长率与水平值呈反向分布态势,且东部地区、粮食主销区、京津冀协同发展经济带农民收入质量的平均水平更高;第四,农民收入质量的区域差异在时间维度上呈现先下降后上升的正U型波动趋势,地区间发展不平衡是农民收入质量差异的主要原因;第五,农民收入质量的分布呈现空间集聚态势,东部沿海省份多集聚在高-高型区域,西部省份多集聚在低-低型区域且长期未发生跃迁。

Based on a panel dataset covering 31 provinces from 1993 to 2021,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for farmer income quality and empirically tests the grade evaluation,spatiotemporal evolution,and regional differences by using natural breakpoint classification,Theil index,Moran index,and other methods.The results are as follows:First,farmer income quality is increasing steadily on a national scale,but there are significant provincial differences.The growth rate of each dimension ranging from small to large is the income's knowledge involvement,growth potential,structuralization,and inadequacy.Second,the farmer income quality has been continuously improved,which has already completed the transformation from low level,medium-low level to medium-high level and high level,but the development is still insufficient.Third,there is a negative relationship between the growth rate and level of farmer income quality in four major regions,three major grain functional areas,and five major economic belts.The level of farmer income quality is higher in the eastem region,main grain sales area,and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development economic belt.Fourth,the regional difference of farmer income quality shows a U-shaped fluctuation trend which decreased at first and then increased The imbalance of development among regions is the main cause of the differences in farmer income quality.Last,farmer income quality shows spatial agglomeration.In the easterm coastal provinces the agglomeration mostly occurs in the high-high area,while in the westerm provinces it mostly occurs in the low-low area and has not been transited in the long term.