中国碳交易市场的运行效率与风险测算

Calculation of Operation Efficiency and Risk of China's Carbon TradinggMarket

碳交易市场稳定和高效运行是中国实现“碳达峰”和“碳中和”的重要支撑。本文通过构建指标体系,对中国碳交易市场运行效率和市场风险水平进行定量测算,并进行国际比较分析。本文分析结果表明:第一,在运行效率方面,国内碳排放配额发放以免费分配为主,企业参与碳交易以清缴履约为主要目的,市场资源配置功能尚未充分发挥,国内碳交易市场总体上处于弱式有效或无效状态,市场定价效率有待进一步提高;第二,在风险水平方面,受供需结构间歇性失调影响,中国碳价波动较国际成熟市场更大,区域之间呈现较为明显的异质性,且由于缺乏衍生品交易机制,中国碳交易市场风险管理体系仍不完善。在上述分析基础上,本文就如何提高中国碳交易市场效率和风险管理水平提出政策建议。

International experience has demonstrated that the stable and highly efficient operation of the carbon trading market plays a vital role in achieving the carbon emission reduction target.It is expected that the efficient operation of the carbon trading market will contribute to China's efforts in"carbon peak"and"carbon neutrality"objectives.However,China's carbon trading market,particularly the quota trading market,still lacks a comprehensive institutional and mechanistic framework compared to that of developed countries and regions.Consequently,there is a need to address various circumstances and issues to strengthen its functioning.By constructing an indicator system,this paper quantitatively calculates the operation efficiency and risk level of China's carbon trading market,and conducts international comparative analysis on this basis.The results show that:in terms of operation efficiency,the current issuance of domestic carbon emission quotas in China is primarily based on free allocation.Enterprises mainly participate in the market to fulfll payment and performance obligations.Therefore,the resource allocation function of the market has not yet been fully utilized.Meanwhile,China's carbon trading markets are generally weakly efficient or ineffective,indicating the need for further improvement of the market pricing efficiency.In terms of market risk,affected by intermittent imbalance of supply and demand structure,China's carbon trading price fluctuates more than overseas mature markets,and there is obvious heterogeneity between and among regions.Due to the absence of derivatives trading mechanism,the risk management system of China's carbon trading market remains incomplete.This paper contributes to existing theoretical literature and provides valuable insights by quantitatively evaluating the development of China's carbon trading market and the regional heterogeneity.Furthermore,through a comprehensive and objective comparison of domestic and overseas markets from multiple dimensions,this paper sheds lights on the disparities and factors which influence the development of carbon trading markets.The policy recommendations proposed on this basis have certain reference value for understanding the development of China's carbon trading market.