美国货币政策对中国经济的溢出效应——基于贸易融资视角的研究

The Spillover Effects of US Monetary Policy on China's Economy-A Research Based on the Trade Finance Perspective

在以美元为主导的国际货币体系中,美国货币政策冲击主要通过贸易和金融渠道对其他国家产生显著的溢出效应。作为国际贸易不可或缺的融资支持工具,贸易融资同样以美元为主导,其规模的变动将会影响美国货币政策的国际传导。本文构建包含金融摩擦的IS-LM-BP模型,分析贸易融资影响美国货币政策溢出效应的理论机制,从宏观和微观两个层面对贸易融资的作用效果进行实证检验。理论分析表明,美元主导的贸易融资的引入会强化美国货币政策贸易渠道、金融渠道的作用效果,即会放大美国货币政策冲击的国际溢出效应。实证研究发现,在宏观层面,美国加息将抑制中国产出,推升中国通胀水平,考虑贸易融资后其对中国产出和通胀的影响将分别放大15%和11%,溢出的传导速度也将显著加快;在微观层面,美联储加息将显著抑制中国企业出口规模,降低企业投资和商业银行信贷供给,贸易融资的引入同样会强化美联储加息的溢出效应。本文的政策含义是,积极推动本币优先的贸易融资有利于缓解美国货币政策冲击对中国的负面影响。

In the US dollar-dominated international monetary system,US monetary policy has a significant impact on other countries,primarily through trade and financial channels.As an essential financing tool for international trade,trade finance is also dominated by the US dollar.Consequently,the fluctuations in trade finance are bound to affect the international transmission of US monetary policy.By using the extended IS-LM-BP model including financial friction,this paper constructs a theoretical model to analyze how trade finance influences the overall spillover effect of US monetary policy through the transmission channels of trade and finance.On this basis,the paper first uses the interaction vector auto-regressive IVAR model to measure the overall effect of trade finance,and then empirically accesses how trade finance affects the function of the two international transmission channels of monetary policy.The theoretical analysis shows that the introduction of dollar-dominated trade financing intensifies the effects of the trade channel and financial channel of US monetary policy.In other words,it amplifies the international spillover effects of US monetary policy shocks.Empirical research finds that at the macro level,US interest rate hikes lead to a decline in China's output and increase in inflation.When considering the impact of trade financing,the effects on output and inflation will be amplified by 15%and 11%,respectively,and the speed of transmission will also be significantly accelerated.At the micro level,US interest rate hikes results in notable decrease in the export volume of Chinese enterprises,reduced enterprise investment and a decline of credit supply from commercial banks.The introduction of trade financing similarly amplifies these spillover effects.The policy implications of this study suggest that actively promoting currency-priority trade financing is beneficial in mitigating the adverse impact of US monetary policy shocks on China.