房地产投资与教育、收入差距:兼论理性选择的非理性结果

Real Estate Investment and Education,Income Gap:Irrational Results of a Rational Choice

本文基于中国综合社会调查、《中国城市统计年鉴》和城市官员特征数据,以2008年房地产调控政策放松为外生冲击,采用出生队列双重差分模型及工具变量法,分析房地产投资扩张对教育决策、教育差距及收入差距的影响。研究发现,房地产投资扩张诱导了短视的教育选择行为,存在弃学诱发效应,这种效应使得农村内部教育代际教育流动性下降,城乡之间教育差距扩大。当房地产投资收缩时,教育差距带来的收入差距开始凸显。本研究对于认识房地产投资在教育和共同富裕方面的影响提供了新的证据。

Based on the China General Social Survey(CGSS),the China City Statistical Yearbook and the characteristics of urban officials,this paper uses the easing of the real estate regulation policy in 2008 as an exogenous shock and applies the birth cohort difference-in-difference model and the instrumental variables method to analyze the impact of the real estate investment expansion on educational decision-making,educational gap and income gap.The study finds that the expansion of real estate investment induces myopic educational choice behavior that induces dropouts in secondary schools.This effect significantly widened the educational gap within rural youth and between urban and rural youth.During the real estate investment contraction period,the income gap brought about by the educational gap becomes even more prominent.This study provides new and complementary evidence to understand the impact of real estate investment on education and common prosperity.