特高压输电与区域经济发展——来自特高压工程的经验证据

Ultra-high Voltage Transmission and Regional Economic Development:Empirical Evidence from UHV Projects

作为“新基建”的重要组成部分,特高压工程有效解决了中国电力资源供需逆向分布的难题,为新时期经济发展注入了动力。本文基于2005~2020年县区级面板数据和其他多种类型数据,采用交错双重差分法探讨了特高压工程对县区经济发展的影响。研究发现,特高压工程显著促进了县区经济发展。机制研究发现,特高压工程通过“资源优势转化效应”带动了电力输出区经济发展,通过“资源劣势弥补效应”带动了输入区经济发展,通过“扩大市场可及性”带动了落点地区经济发展,通过“促投资效应”和“纠错配效应”促进了整体县区经济发展。异质性研究发现,特高压工程对线路起点、终点以及落点地区经济发展均能产生积极作用,但对落点和终点地区经济发展的带动作用更强。清洁能源输送型和混合输送型特高压能够显著促进县区经济发展,但以输送火电为主的特高压并未促进县区经济发展。并且,交流和直流特高压均能促进县区经济发展。拓展性研究发现,特高压工程有利于打破市场分割,实现污染防治和经济发展的“双赢”,其辐射范围大约为周边200公里。本研究为“新基建”促进中国经济发展提供了有力的证据支持。

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)pointed out that the layout,structure,functions,and system integration of infrastructure should be optimized,and a modern infrastructure system should be constructed.The“new infrastructure”is not only an important part of the modernized infrastructure system but also an important driving force for achieving high-quality economic development.China’s power resources supply and demand up to 800-3000 kilometers.The supply and demand contradiction is more prominent,coupled with“energy consumption double control”constraints and renewable energy unit rapid expansion but limited transmission capacity,etc.In recent years,China’s provinces have taken the“orderly use of electricity,temporary power outages,pulling the gates to limit power,”and other initiatives.Frequent power limitations not only affect people’s normal lives but also adversely affect economic and social development.Therefore,there is an urgent need to significantly improve the overall transmission capacity of the power grid.Ultra-high voltage(UHV)projects are known as“super arteries”for economic and social development because of their long transmission distance,large capacity,high efficiency,low loss,and small land occupation.This study explores the impact of UHV on the economic development of counties and districts based on county-and district-level panel data and multiple types of data from 2005 to 2020 using the staggered difference in differences(DID)method. The study found that the UHV project has significantly promotedthe economic development of counties and districts. The mechanism study found that the UHV project hasdriven the economic development of the power output area through the“resource advantage transformationeffect,” driven the economic development of the input area through the“resource disadvantagecompensation effect,”driven the economic development of the drop-off area through“expanding marketaccessibility,”and promoted the overall economic development through the“investment promotioneffect”and“mismatch correction effect.”The heterogeneity study found that UHV projects can havepositive effects on the economic development of the starting point,the end point,and the drop-off pointareas,but the economic development of the drop-off point and the end point areas is more strongly driven.Clean energy transmission-type UHV and hybrid transmission-type UHV can significantly promote theeconomic development of counties and districts,but thermal power-oriented UHV does not promote theeconomic development of counties and districts. Moreover,both alternating current(AC) and directcurrent(DC)UHV can promote the economic development of counties and districts. Extensive researchhas found that UHV projects are conducive to breaking up market segmentation,realizing a“win-win”situation in terms of pollution prevention and economic development,and radiating to a radius of about200 kilometers around the area.The contributions of this study include the following. First,the research perspective is novel.Previous studies focused on transportation,networks,and traditional power infrastructure,but theconclusions are not uniform and not enough attention has been paid to UHV. This study explores theeconomic effects of UHV projects as a strong addition to the existing literature. Second,the identificationstrategy is scientific. Previous studies have used grid density to measure the level of power infrastructuredevelopment, which is prone to endogenous problems. Based on the exogenous impact of thecommissioning of the UHV project,this study skillfully identifies the economic effects of the UHV projectusing the staggered DID model,which ensures the scientific nature of the identification strategy as muchas possible. Third,the mechanism is explored in depth. This study discusses the“resource advantagetransformation effect,”“resource disadvantage compensation effect,”“expanding market accessibility,”and“investment promotion effect”induced by the creation of UHV. Fourth,it is practically significant.The use of infrastructure policies to boost the economy is controversial as is the promotion of UHVprojects. This study finds that the UHV project has promoted the economic development of counties anddistricts,realized a“win-win”situation in terms of economic development and environmental protection,and played a positive role in breaking market segregation,which is a huge benefit despite the huge cost.These findings provide empirical support for the promotion of UHV and other“new infrastructures.”