汇率制度弹性与国际资本流动“突然停止”持续期

Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Duration of the Sudden Stops

本文以65个主要经济体1980—2021年的季度数据为研究样本,采用生存分析法考察汇率制度弹性对国际资本流动“突然停止”持续期的影响。研究发现:富有弹性的汇率制度能够发挥危机缓冲器作用,提高汇率制度弹性能够使“突然停止”风险的退出概率增加69.7%,即提高汇率制度弹性有利于缩短“突然停止”持续期,且这一结论经过一系列稳健性、内生性检验后依然成立。异质性分析表明,经济和金融发展水平较高的经济体,提高汇率制度弹性更有利于其从“突然停止”风险中快速退出。进一步研究发现,提高资本账户和贸易开放度能显著促进汇率制度弹性对“突然停止”持续期的抑制作用。研究结论为“三元悖论”中选择汇率稳定还是资本自由流动提供了参考依据。在货币政策独立的前提下,应尽可能增强汇率制度弹性,同时审慎提高资本账户开放程度,从而更好地缓冲“突然停止”冲击。

With the deepening degree of global financial integration,the traditional trilemma theory has been questioned and gradually evolved into dilemma in which the importance of the exchange rate system can be ignored.Based on the quarterly data of 65 major economies from 1980 to 2021,this paper uses survival analysis to study the impact of exchange rate regime flexibility on the duration of sudden stops.The purpose is to discuss the buffering function of floating exchange rate regime based on the duration of sudden stops,in order to provide new evidence for the debate between dilemma and trilemma theories.The results show that a flexible exchange rate regime can serve as a buffering mechanism during crises,and the probabil⁃ity of exiting due to sudden stops risk increases by 69.7%with the enhancement of flexibility of exchange rate regime.In other words,greater flexibility of exchange rate regime can reduce the duration of sudden stops.Heterogeneity analysis shows that for economies with higher levels of economic and financial development,improving the flexibility of the exchange rate regime can help them escape from the sudden stops more quickly.Further research shows that increasing capital and trade openness can significantly enhance the inhibitory effect of exchange rate regime flexibility on the duration of sudden stops.The above results provide an empirical basis for the choice between exchange rate stability and free capital flow in the tri⁃lemma theory,and also indicate that under the premise of independent monetary policy,economies should enhance the flexibil⁃ity of the exchange rate regime as much as possible,and at the same time prudently improve the openness of the capital account to adapt to it.Only in this way can we better cushion the impact of sudden stops.