气候要素影响下老年人死亡风险表现及适应水平差异分析

Influence of Climate Factors on Mortality Risk of Older Adults in China

老年人在气候变化中面临更为严峻的健康风险。采用2002~2018年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)和2002~2019年《中国气象年鉴》数据,借助Cox比例风险模型,分析气候要素对老年人死亡风险的影响以及导致老年群体气候适应水平差异的社会、经济缘由。研究结果表明,各类气候要素的变动均会导致老年人死亡风险变化,极端气温对老年人死亡风险的负面影响最显著,极端气温与气压、空气相对湿度等气候要素的交互作用会产生更恶劣的消极影响;男性、高龄、农村以及不在婚的老年人抵御气候变化的能力更低,而经济水平较高的老年人在面临不良气候威胁时表现出更高的气候适应水平;社会保障在不同气候要素对老年人死亡风险的影响中发挥着干扰型或增强型交互作用,能够有效提升老年人的气候适应水平。

Older adults have higher mortality risk during climate change.Using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)and the China Meteorological Yearbook,this study employs the Cox proportional hazards model to test the impacts of climate factors and individual socioeconomic characteristics on older adults'mortality risk.The research results indicate that changes in climate factors lead to changes in older adults'mortality risk.Extreme high and low temperatures have a significant negative impact on the mortality risk.Its interaction terms with other climate factors,such as air pressure and humidity,are also significant.Unmarried rural older men have a higher mortality level,while economically advanced older people typically exhibit lower risk.Social security plays an interference or reinforcement interactive role in the impact of different climate factors on the mortality risk of older adults,which can effectively improve their climate adaptability.