火箭最大气动载荷预报精度及建模订正分析

Analysis of the Precision of the Maximum Aerodynamic Load Forecast for Rockets and Modeling Revisions

以qamax实况值为基准,分析了火箭最大气动载荷预报值精度随预报天数的变化特征。发现在预报天数1~11天内,最大气动载荷预报值精度随预报天数延长而降低,其绝对差从225.78 Pa·rad(第1天)增长到533.87 Pa·rad(第11天)、相对误差由10.97%(第1天)增大到24.54%(第11天);利用多元线性回归方法建立最大气动载荷预报值订正模型,可提高各预报天数的最大气动载荷预报值精度,平均绝对差由402.45 Pa·rad减小到309.82 Pa·rad,平均相对误差由17.71%减小到14.60%,这些发现对于火箭发射前的安全飞行保障具有参考价值。

The precision of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast value that is varied by following the characteristics of forecast days difference is analyzed by using the true values as a benchmark.The results show that within ll days of forecast days:The precision of maximum aerodynamic load forecast value shows a decreasing trend with the extension of the forecast days,and the absolute difference is increased from 225.78 Pa·rad(Day 1)to 533.87 Pa·rad(Day 11),the relative error is increased from 10.97%(Day 1)to 24.54%(Day 11);The use of multiple linear regression methods for establishment of a revised model can improve the precision of maximum aerodynamic load forecast values in each forecast day,and the average absolute diference is reduced from 402.45 Pa·rad to 309.82 Pa·rad,and the average relative error is reduced from 17.71% to 14.60%;These discoveries are of reference for safe flight assurance before rocket launch.