气候变化对燕山地区北苍术适生区分布的影响

Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution Pattern of the Suitable Growing Region for Atractylodes chinensis(DC.)Koidz.in Yanshan Area

目的研究气候变化对燕山地区北苍术适生区分布的影响,探讨其适生区的时空变化规律,为燕山地区北苍术种质资源保护提供理论依据。方法通过实地调查和查阅资料获取燕山地区北苍术地理分布信息49条,结合环境因子数据及不同浓度温室气体排放情景下(SSP1-2.6、SSP5-8.5)的气候数据,运用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和地理信息系统,模拟当前(1970-2000年)和未来3个时期(2021-2040年、2041-2060年、2061-2080年)燕山地区北苍术适生区分布及动态变化。结果温度季节性变化和高程对北苍术适生区影响最大;温室气体低排放情景下(SSP1-2.6),适生区面积呈缩小趋势,分布重心向海拔较低的辽河平原方向迁移,总体迁移距离为83.52 km,平均海拔下降88 m;温室气体高排放情景下(SSP5-8.5),适生区面积增加,分布重心向海拔较高的内蒙古高原方向迁移,迁移距离为100.44 km,平均海拔上升119 m。结论未来不同气候变化将改变燕山地区北苍术适生区分布,可通过向不同海拔地区迁移应对气候变化。选择北苍术人工驯化和引种区域时应注意气候变化,避免适生区退化风险。

Objective To investigate the effects of climate change on the distribution pattern of the suitable growing region of Atractylodes chinensis(DC.)Koidz.in the Yanshan area;To explore the spatiotemporal changes in its suitable habitat;To establish a theoretical foundation for the preservation of Atractylodes chinensis(DC.)Koidz.resources in the Yanshan area.Methods A total of 49 geographic distribution data items were collected through field surveys and data reviews.Based on environmental factor data and climate data under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5),the MaxEnt model and geographic information system were employed to simulate the distribution and dynamic changes of the suitable habitat for Atractylodes chinensis(DC.)Koidz in the Yanshan region in the current(1970-2000)and future three periods(2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080).Results The adaptability of Atractylodes chinensis(DC.)Koidz.was primarily influenced by seasonal variations in temperature and elevation.Under the low greenhouse gas emission scenario(SSP1-2.6),the suitable growing region experienced a degradation trend,and the distribution center shifted to the lower altitude Liaohe Plain,with a migration distance of 83.52 km and an average altitude decrease of 88 m;under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario(SSP5-8.5),the suitable growing region expanded,and the distribution center moved towards the higher altitude Inner Mongolia Plateau,with a migration distance of 100.44 km and an average altitude increase of 119 m.Conclusion In the future,climate change according to different models will alter the distribution of the suitable growing region for Atractylodes chinensis(DC.)Koidz.Atractylodes chinensis(DC.)Koidz.in the Yanshan area will adapt by shifting to different altitudes.It is crucial to remain vigilant about climate change and mitigate the risk of habitat degradation when selecting altitudes for the artificial cultivation and introduction areas of Atractylodes chinensis(DC.)Koidz.,in order to avoid the risk of habitat degradation.