2000—2020年长三角地区城市低碳竞争力时空演化

Spatio-temporal evolution of urban low-carbon competitiveness in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2020

“双碳”目标下需要在区域范围研究城市低碳竞争力,解析区域内各城市低碳发展条件的时空演化差异。以长三角41个城市2000—2020年低碳竞争力为研究对象,以碳排放量、碳排放社会经济关联因素、低碳技术与政策3个维度构建城市低碳竞争力评价指标体系,基于TOPSIS-灰色关联法解析长三角地区城市低碳竞争力时序演化特征,并采用LISA时间路径和时空跃迁模型分析其空间演化格局,最终划分了城市时空演化类型。结果表明:①长三角地区城市低碳竞争力位序更替明显,近50%的城市演化呈现波动上升趋势,地区平均水平上海市>浙江省>江苏省>安徽省。②碳排放量空间关联度变化较大,碳排放社会经济关联因素空间关联度较弱,而低碳技术与政策时空协同发展态势显著。③长三角城市不发生时空类型跃迁或跃迁方向一致的概率为81.1%,表明长三角城市低碳竞争力空间格局存在一定的路径依赖。④长三角地区低碳竞争力存在不同的时空演化类型,北部部分城市属于低水平固化型;皖南和浙南地区部分城市属于高水平协同型;中部的杭州、宁波等城市属于高水平溢散型,带动周边地区向好发展;而上海、南京与合肥属于高水平中心型,尚未充分发挥带动作用。从长三角整体视角来看,城市低碳竞争力三维度存在时空上的外部动力和内在因素之间的相互协调与转化,这驱动着该地区整体低碳竞争力的持续发展提升。本研究可为低碳导向的区域一体化发展提供政策借鉴。

To achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,it is necessary to analyze the low-carbon competitiveness of cities on a regional scale.In other words,it is important to recognize the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of the low-carbon development in various cities in regional scope.This paper aims to analyze the low-carbon competitiveness of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)from 2000 to 2020.It first constructed the comprehensive index system for evaluating urban low-carbon competitiveness,consisting of three dimensions of carbon emissions,socio-economic correlation factors,low-carbon technologies and policies.It then analyzed the time-series evolution characteristics of urban low-carbon competitiveness in the study area based on the TOPSIS-grey relational analysis method,and identified the spatial evolution pattern of urban low-carbon competitiveness by employing LISA time path and space-time transition models.It finally divided the 41 cities into seven spatio-temporal evolution types.Results have shown that:(1)The urban low-carbon competitiveness in the YRD changed significantly within the 20 years,and nearly half of the cities showed fluctuating evolution with an upward trend,and the average level of low-carbon competitiveness is Shanghai>Zhejiang>Jiangsu>Anhui;(2)The spatial correlation of the dimension of carbon emissions varied greatly among cities,while the spatial correlation of the dimension of socioeconomic factors was relatively weak,and the spatio-temporal coordination of the dimension of low-carbon technologies and policies was becoming better.(3)The probability of nonetransition between spatio-temporal types or the same transition direction in the cities is 81.1%,indicating that there was certain path dependence in the spatial pattern evolution of low-carbon competitiveness in the YRD.(4)Different spatio-temporal evolution types of low-carbon competitiveness in the YRD were identified,for instance,the low-level solidification type in the northern areas,the high-level synergy type in southern Anhui and Zhejiang,the high-level overflow type in the central areas such as Hangzhou and Ningbo,which drove the low-carbon development of surrounding areas,the high-level centrality type such as Shanghai,Nanjing and Hefei,which were regional centers yet not fully played a leading role.In general,there are certain coordination and transformation existing in the external and internal factors of the three dimensions of urban low-carbon competitiveness,which drive the overall evolution of lowcarbon competitiveness in the YRD.This paper could shed light on policy-making of low carbon oriented regional integration.