基于多情景模拟的伊犁河谷土地利用景观格局分析

Landscape pattern analysis of land use in Yili River Valley based on multi-scenario simulation

【目的】为探索人地协调城镇发展模式,解决绿洲重点经济建设区人地矛盾问题,模拟未来土地利用发展状况尤为重要。【方法】基于土地利用转移矩阵和PLUS(Patch-generating land use simu-lation,PLUS)模型对2000—2020年期间的伊犁河谷土地利用变化及其驱动因子进行分析,并设置多种发展情景进行模拟。【结果】结果显示:(1)2000—2020年伊犁河谷土地利用变化明显,其中草地退化严重,不透水面扩张显著,人地矛盾激烈。(2)各地类变化主要驱动因子差异明显,少数地类单因子主导驱动明显,大部分地类多因子复合驱动作用明显。(3)从3种情景模拟结果来看,自然情景以农田和未利用地增加为主,其次不透水面扩张明显;经济发展情景是通过增加不透水面扩张面积来达到最佳经济效益;生态保护情景下草地退化和未利用地扩张得到控制,湿地区域保护加强,实现生态效益显著提升。【结论】对土地利用驱动因子分析,要侧重多因子复合驱动作用的影响。PLUS模型对伊犁河谷土地利用变化模拟适用性较好,多情景模拟土地利用景观格局未来发展,可为伊犁河谷及地理环境相似的绿洲解决人地矛盾,发展人地协调模式提供理论指导与参考。

[Objective]In order to explore the urban development mode of man-land coordination and solve the problem of man-land contradiction in the key economic construction areas of oasis,it is particularly important to simulate the future land use development situation.[Methods]Based on land use transfer matrix and Patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,land use change and its driving factors in Yili Valley from 2000 to 2020 are analyzed,and a variety of development scenarios are set up for simulation.[Results]The results are as follows:(1)The land use changes in Yili Valley from 2000 to 2020 are obvi-ous,including serious grassland degradation,significant expansion of impervious surface,and intense contradiction between man and land.(2)There were significant differences in the main driving factors of class change among different regions.In a few land classes,the single-factor driving was obvious,while in most land classes,the multi-factor compound driving was obvious.(3)According to the simulation result of the three scenarios,farmland and unused land increase in the natural scenario,followed by the obvious expansion of impervious water surface;Economic development scenario is to increase the impervious surface expansion area to achieve the best economic benefits;Under the ecological protection scenario,grassland degradation and unused land expansion were controlled,wetland protection was strengthened,and ecological benefits were significantly improved.[Conclusion]For the analysis of land use driving factors,the impact of multi-factor composite driving factors should be focused.The PLUS model has good applicability to the simulation of land use change in the Ili River Valley,and the multi-scenario simu-lation of the future development of the land use landscape pattern can provide theoretical guidance and reference for solving the contradiction between people and land in the Ili River Valley and oases with similar geographical environment,and developing the human-land coordination model.