区域双核结构对省域经济发展的影响研究--基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

The influence of regional dual-nuclei structure on provincial economic development in China:An empirical study based on spatial Dubin model

目前从全国层面对区域双核结构的实证分析还较为鲜见,如何界定双核结构特征的省份并分析其影响,也需要进一步实证探讨。本文基于2009—2019年中国259个地级市数据,采用空间杜宾模型分析了中国区域双核结构的分布特征及其对省域经济发展的影响。实证结果表明:中国11个省域呈现双核结构特征;区域双核结构对于所在省域经济发展具有显著的促进作用,但南北地区表现出较大差异;区域双核结构对于省域产业集聚具有促进作用,且有助于促进当地科技创新水平的提高。总体来看,与部分省会城市规模不大、辐射带动力不强的单核结构省份相比,区域双核结构可以凭借中心城市数量及空间分布等优势在一定程度上弥补这些短板,相对来说更有助于带动当地经济发展及科技创新。

At present,the empirical analysis of regional dual-nuclei structures at the national level is still relatively rare.How to define the provinces with the characteristics of dual-nuclei structures and analyze their impact needs further empirical discussion.In this paper,the spatial Dubin model and the data of 259 prefecture-level cities are used to analyze the distribution characteristics of regional dual-nuclei structure in China and its influence on provincial development.The empirical results show that 11 provincial-level regions(hereafter provinces)in China show the characteristics of dual-nuclei structure.The regional dual-nuclei structure plays a significant role in promoting the economic development of the province,but the northern and southern regions show great differences.The regional dual-nuclei structure has a promoting effect on provincial industrial agglomeration and helps to promote the improvement of local scientific and technological innovation.In general,compared with some single-core provinces with small scale and weak radiation driving force in some provincial capitals,the regional dual-nuclei structure can make up for these shortcomings to a certain extent by virtue of the number of central cities and spatial distribution,which is more conducive to driving local economic development and scientific and technological innovation.