城市老年人生命旺盛现象网络结构传染特征分析——基于仿真模拟实验

Analysis of network structure infection characteristics of phenomenon of life thriving among urban older adults based on simulation experiment

生命旺盛现象的复杂网络,具有小世界特性,符合行为传播交流特点。文章运用NetLogo仿真平台,在经典SIR模型基础上,探究城市老年人生命旺盛现象网络结构传染特征,为积极老龄健康治理提供参考。在仿真实验观测中发现,生命旺盛感的传染具有系统延迟性、复杂特征以及级联扩散效应。生命旺盛现象传染率有等于、大于和小于免疫率三个场景,生命旺盛曲线、生命不旺盛曲线、潜在生命旺盛状态曲线均出现四次交点但传播趋势不同。社会网络的初始状态、生命旺盛现象的传染率和免疫率皆影响旺盛传染曲线的达峰时间,传染特征取向不同。研究提示不同强度生命旺盛现象的干预时间和效果不同,因此积极老龄社区的营造需要综合考虑区域老年人群旺盛的比例、特征、最佳干预方式、最佳干预时间等条件。

This study explores the structural transmission characteristics of the phenomenon of thriving life of urban older adults and provides some reference for the active aging health governance.The complex network of life thriving phenomenon features small⁃world characteristic and conforms to the behavior communication characteristics.Based on the classical SIR model,this study uses the NetLogo simulation modeling to analyze the structural transmission characteristics of phenomenon of life thriving of urban older adults.In the simulation experiment observation,the infection phenomenon of network structure is characterized by systematic delay,complex characteristics,and cascading diffusion among urban older adults.The infectious rate of thriving in life has three scenarios:equal to,greater than and less than the immune rate.The life exuberance,non⁃exuberance and potential life exuberance state curve all have four intersections,but with different propagation trend.The initial state of the social network,the transmission rate and the immunization rate of the thriving phenomenon all affect the peak time of the life exuberance curve,while the infectious characteristics have different orientations.The study indicates that the intervention time and effect of different intensities of life thriving phenomenon are different.Therefore,the construction of active elderly communities needs to take into account a combination of the thriving proportion among the population,characteristics,optimal intervention methods and time.