中国社会融资规模指标的演变、效能与趋向——研究述评与展望

The Evolution,Effectiveness,and Trends of China′s Social Financing Scale Index:Review and Prospects

社会融资规模代表实体经济从金融体系获取的流动性总和,是中国人民银行首创的金融统计指标,是中国式金融在实践探索中的创举。文章从演变、效能及趋向等视角对中国社会融资规模指标的相关研究进行总结,对主流观点进行归纳。研究表明,在货币政策处于量价混合调控的过渡时期,中国社会融资规模指标仍将发挥重要作用。此外,文章从统计口径的完善、指标的搭配运用、综合评价指标体系的构建、统计原则的优化以及前瞻性指引的强化等方面出发,对未来可进行深入研究或拓展的方向进行了展望。

The scale of social financing represents the total liquidity obtained by the real economy from the financial system.It is a financial statistical indicator pioneered by the People′s Bank of China and a pioneering example of Chinese style finance in practical exploration.This paper summarizes the relevant research on China′s social financing scale indicators from the perspectives of evolution,efficiency,and trends,and summarizes the mainstream viewpoints.Research has shown that in the transitional period of mixed regulation of monetary policy,China′s social financing scale indicators will still play an important role.In addition,this paper looks forward to future directions for in-depth research or expansion,starting from the improvement of statistical caliber,the combination and application of indicators,the construction of a comprehensive evaluation index system,the optimization of statistical principles,and the strengthening of forwardlooking guidance.