省际人口流动时空特征及其对区域经济发展的影响:基于全国人口普查数据

Provincial Population Mobility and Its Impact on Regional

基于第五次、第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据,采用数理公式推演和实证分析相结合的方法探究省际流动人口对区域经济发展的影响,识别出流动人口对区域经济发展的规模效应和结构效应.研究表明:①我国流动人口规模在不断增加,但空间格局未发生显著变化,整体呈现“中间低、两端高”的分布;②流动人口对于流入地和流出地经济发展存在规模和结构效应,改变地区人口数量、影响地区生产效率进而影响地区经济发展;③流入人口对于发达地区和欠发达地区没有显著的差异性影响,而流出人口存在显著的差异性影响,流出人口对于欠发达地区的负面影响大于发达地区.因此,发达地区应助推人口回流趋势,转移中低端产业和低技能劳动力,疏解人口过密压力,实现产业结构和人口结构的转型升级;欠发达地区应把握人口回流和产业转移的机会窗口,精准承接产业转移,吸引人才进入,推动新型城镇化和乡村振兴向纵深发展的同时,推动区域经济的协调发展.

Based on the data of the fifth,sixth and seventh national population censuses,this paper uses a combination of mathematical formula deduction and empirical analysis to explore the impact of inter-provincial floating population on regional economic development,and identifies the scale effect and structural effect of floating population on regional economic development.The scale of floating population in China has been increasing,but the spatial pattern has not changed significantly,and the overall distribution is“low in the middle and high at both ends”.The floating population has scale and structural effects on the economic development of the inflow and outflow places,which changes the regional population,affects the regional production efficiency and then affects the regional economic development.The inflow population has no significant differential impact on developed and underdeveloped regions,while the outflow population has significant differential impact.The negative impact of outflow population on underdeveloped regions is greater than that of developed regions.Therefore,developed regions should boost the trend of population return,transfer low-end industries and low-skilled labor,relieve the pressure of population density,and realize the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and population structure.Under-developed regions should seize the opportunities of population return and industrial transfer,accurately undertake industrial transfer,attract talents,promote the in-depth development of new urbanization and rural revitalization,and promote the coordinated development of regional economy.