2016—2021年中国千强镇的时空变化及影响因素分析

Spatial and Temporal Changes and Influencing Factors of the Top 1000 Strong Towns in China from 2016 to 2021

根据2016—2021年千强镇的榜单,运用空间自相关分析、最邻近指数法等方法分析千强镇的时空演化规律,并运用地理探测器模型分析其影响因素.研究表明:①在频数方面,千强镇呈现出趋海分布的趋势,并形成以江浙、珠三角为集聚核心区和局部零散分布的空间分布格局.②在对比分析方面,千强镇分布与百强县分布随着时间的变化有着较为密切的联系.③千强镇集中分布在长三角、珠三角以及海峡西岸城市群,表明了城市群在引领乡镇的发展、带动区域发展方面发挥着重要的作用.④从集中程度看,最邻近指数呈现下降趋势,印证了千强镇在空间上的集聚程度进一步增强.从局部LISA集聚图看,显著HH区主要分布在长三角城市群及其向北延伸至江苏南部的局部地市,小部分分布在珠三角城市群核心区但近期消失;显著LL区破碎化分布明显,主要分布在十堰、襄阳等地区.⑤从影响因素看,各因子的决定力排名为公共财政收入>规模以上工业企业个数>工业个数>人口>人口密度>高程>营业面积50 m2以上的综合商店或超市个数>人口城镇化率.此外,政府政策对千强镇分布有着较强的解释作用.

According to the top 1000 strong towns in China from 2016 to 2021,the study analyzes spatial distribution characteristics and spatial and temporal changes of the top 1000 strong towns by the means of spatial autocorrelation analysis and average nearest neighbor analysis,and uses the geographic detector model to explore its influencing factors.The results show as fallows:①From the perspective of spatial distribution,it shows obvious characteristics of sea-trending.The top 1000 strong towns present a spatial distribution pattern of“the core areas of Jiangsu-Zhejiang and the Pearl River Delta,with other scattered distribution areas”.②In terms of the comparative analysis,the distribution of the top 1000 strong towns is closely related to the distribution of top 100 counties with the change of time.③The top 1000 strong towns are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta and the west coast of the Straits,indicating that urban agglomeration plays an important role in leading the development of towns and driving regional development.④From the perspective of spatial concentration,the NNI index generally shows a downward trend,showing the further enhancement of the concentration degree of the top 1000 strong towns in space.From the spatial local LISA agglomeration map,significant HH areas are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and its local cities extending northward to southern Jiangsu,and a small part is distributed in the core area of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration but has disappeared recently.Significant LL areas are mainly distributed in Shiyan,Xiangyang and other cities.⑤From the perspective of influencing factors,the decisive ranking of each factor is public financial revenue>number of industrial enterprises above designated size>number of industries>population>population density>elevation>number of general stores or supermarkets with a business area of more than 50 square meters>population urbanization rate.In addition,government policies have an explanatory function.